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Spoiler Alert: the results of the 2020-21 NBA Season
Some fans (like myself) loathe reading "
spoilers" for their favorite TV shows or movies. Others actively seek them out.
One of the best parts of being a sports fan is that it's
impossible to look ahead and know the outcome of the season. However, I happened to stumble upon a Sports Almanac and will divulge the results for you now. Of course, if you're prefer not to know what happens this year, skip this post and be surprised instead.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1)
Milwaukee Bucks : 50-22
With the news of Giannis Antetokounmpo's extensions serving as an early Christmas present, the Bucks roll into the year with good vibes and another dominant regular season run. Their new supporting takes some time to gel which leads to some more close games, but in turn that causes Giannis Antetokounmpo to play more minutes and put up better raw stats than ever (averaging 30 PPG for the first time in his career). Despite that, he's not a runaway MVP winner. Some voter fatigue and playoff backlash causes a split vote, with 5 different players receiving first-place voters. When the smoke clears and the dust settles, Giannis wins a close vote to snag his third consecutive MVP trophy.
(2)
Brooklyn Nets : 47-25
The Brooklyn Nets click together early, fueled by a healthy-looking Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. They race out to a 30-11 start to the regular season before taking their foot off the gas to help sustain their health. While that decision may help them in the long run, it costs Kevin Durant his early-season MVP buzz (similar to Kawhi Leonard's season in Toronto.) Still, the Nets enter the postseason with good vibes all around, which earns coach Steve Nash several laudatory media reports and nearly enables him to win Coach of the Year (he finishes second.)
(3)
Philadelphia 76ers : 46-26
Speaking of great press, new exec Daryl Morey receives plenty of glowing reviews himself after his tweaks to the roster work wonders. Thanks to the spacing of Seth Curry, Shake Milton, and surprise rookie Isaiah Joe, slashepasser Ben Simmons takes a leap up in efficiency, scoring a career-high 23 points a game and earning 2nd team All-NBA honors. Inside the locker room, it feels like there's a notable shift towards the roster being more of
his team than Joel Embiid's. Of course, the club knows they'll need both of them to dominant to make a Finals push.
(4)
Toronto Raptors : 45-27
Reigning Coach of the Year Nick Nurse doesn't get half as much recognition as he should for another strong year at the helm, helping the club to easily beat their Vegas oveunder of 41.5 wins. Still, there are cracks under the surface. Now at age 34/35, Kyle Lowry looks like he's lost a step and struggles to match his 36 minutes per game from the prior year. Although nothing is official yet, it looks like the team may have to say goodbye to Lowry at the end of the season as he enters free agency.
(5)
Miami Heat : 44-28
The Miami heat don't ride their momentum from the Finals trip into a top seed, partly due to some leaky defense on the perimeter. Frustrated, Pat Riley decides to make a power move and trade for Victor Oladipo. The fit doesn't click right away as the team retains a similar record, but the Heat still feel confident that they can turn up the volume when the playoffs roll around.
(6)
Boston Celtics : 43-29
After losing Gordon Hayward, the Boston Celtics' ascent up the Eastern Conference stagnates. For the first time, the media appears to turn on this likable coach and club, wondering if the team needs to make a dramatic trade to shake up the roster. Ultimately, they decide to hold on to Jaylen Brown and the core and take their chances in the playoffs with the current lineup.
(7)
Indiana Pacers : 38-34
The Indiana Pacers attempt to shift their playing style under new coach Nate Bjorkgren, but some up and down play leads them to make a move and (as mentioned) trade Victor Oladipo prior to his free agency. Afterwards, they play more minutes with PG Aaron Holiday and PG/SG Malcolm Brogdon in the same lineup, a look that leads to a faster paced offense more befitting of Bjorkgren's ultimate goal for the team. That said, the decision about the future of the Myles TurneDomatas Sabonis pairing looms in the background.
(8)
Atlanta Hawks : 35-37
All the moves the Atlanta Hawks made during the offseason pay off -- more or less -- as Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic give Trae Young some much needed help. A year after finishing 26th in total offense, the team leaps up into the top half of the league. Still, struggles on defense keep the team below .500 on the year and lead to a dogfight all year long for that 8th seed.
(9)
Washington Wizards : 34-38
New PG Russell Westbrook earns rave reviews from his teammates and from the press early on, as the club jumps out to a 12-8 record and a presumptive playoff spot thanks to a renewed effort and attitude. Ultimately, their poor defense (ranked 30th last season) and their young frontcourt lead to a few too many losses along the way and prevent them from clinching a playoff spot outright. Coach Scott Brooks is let go after the season in favor of Denver assistant Wes Unseld Jr.
(10)
Charlotte Hornets : 30-42
The Charlotte Hornets' maligned signing of Gordon Hayward doesn't look too bad (in year 1) as Hayward returns to near All-Star levels with averages of 18-6-5. Still, the youth on the roster cripples any chance of a true playoff finish. At the same time, the future looks brighter than before. LaMelo Ball wins a polarizing Rookie of the Year campaign with good raw stats (15-5-7) on bad efficiency, while R2 pick Vernon Carey flirts with All-Rookie team for a solid 11-7 first year as a scoring big off the bench.
(11)
Chicago Bulls : 28-44
One year after winning Coach of the Year for mixing the perfect cocktail in Oklahoma City, Billy Donovan doesn't find the same type of immediate success with the young pieces here in Chicago. Rookie Patrick Williams looks promising, but second year guard Coby White shows more inconsistency than expected in his sophomore campaign.
(12)
Orlando Magic : 28-44
Despite the losses of Jonathan Isaac (injury) and D.J. Augustin (free agency), coach Steve Clifford keeps his team in the playoff mix for the first few months of the season. But once the team stumbles during a 1-5 stretch, the front office decides to wave the white flag and trade Aaron Gordon. For them, the purposes are twofold: to give more opportunity to rookie PF Chuma Okeke, and to eye a higher draft pick in a strong class. With that rebuild in mind, the team decides to empower rookie PG Cole Anthony over the last few month, indicating that free agent Markelle Fultz may not be in their future plans after all.
(13)
Detroit Pistons : 25-47
Returning from injury, Blake Griffin flashes the All-NBA caliber talent that he displayed two years ago when he led the team to a 41-41 record. However, Griffin continues to miss time here and there, effectively ending the team's chances of being a true playoff contender. The limited spacing also reveals itself, as the team struggles mightily to score in the games Griffin misses (finishing 8-19 without him.)
(14)
New York Knicks : 24-48
Hard-charging coach Tom Thibodeau pushes the Knicks too much for them to garner the top spot in the NBA Draft, but they still manage to finish in the bottom 5. For all the early Rookie of the Year buzz for Obi Toppin, he fails to win the award due to Thibodeau overplaying Julius Randle and Toppin's own bad stats on defense.
(15)
Cleveland Cavaliers : 21-51
The undersized perimeter leads to an awful defense that leaves the Cavaliers among the worst in the league yet again. The team attempts to trade Kevin Love to a contender, but an injury complicates that timeline and leads to an offseason exit for the big man instead.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Los Angeles Clippers : 48-24
After their embarrassing flameout against Denver, the L.A. Clippers come back with a chip on their shoulder and an eagerness to change the narrative about them. Their regular season play remains similar (top 5 in offense and defense), but comes with more effort and chemistry as a unit. By the time the season ends, they've gotten right back to the level of the Lakers in terms of title odds (+270).
(2) Los Angeles Lakers : 47-25
Unlike their cross-town rival (or rather, same-stadium rival), the L.A. Lakers don't feel the need to drive hard in the regular season after winning the title. LeBron James drastically reduces his workload in the regular season, going from 34.6 minutes a night down to 33.5. In the process, the Lakers lose their grip on the # 1 seed and LeBron James' loses his argument for another MVP. But as the playoffs approach, they don't seem to mind at all; they're still the betting favorite to win the title in Vegas.
(3) Utah Jazz : 44-28
After a full year in the system, PG Mike Conley's struggles are behind him and he helps the team threaten for the # 1 seed. Returning big man Derrick Favors helps the depth and helps the defense return to the top 8 (after falling to 13th last year), and wing Royce O'Neale finally gets some credit for that as well, finishing on the All-Defense team.
(4) Denver Nuggets : 43-29
While the Utah Jazz thrive because of their defense, Denver disappoints because of a declining one. Michael Porter Jr. looks like a future All-Star with averages of 16.7 points per game, but his struggles on the other end (in contrast to Jerami Grant) lead the Nuggets to finish in the bottom half of the league on D and prevent them from the presumptive step up that many expect.
(5) Dallas Mavericks : 41-31
Luka Doncic and company look as good as ever, but their returns demand on expectations. Luka Doncic puts up MVP-caliber stats, but doesn't actually win it (losing to Giannis.) The historically good offense takes a dip as the team realizes how much they miss Seth Curry. In his place, Josh Richardson underwhelms for his second straight team.
(6) New Orleans Pelicans : 38-34
After getting a lot of flak and a lot of flab, Zion Williams looks rejuvenated early on and the hype about him returns quickly. New coach Stan Van Gundy settles on rotations faster than Alvin Gentry did, and trusts his former player J.J. Redick more than Gentry did as well. Redick and Steven Adams' veteran leadership helps the youngsters play hard and fast every night, leading to a playoff spot despite inconsistent shooting as a team. Van Gundy wins Coach of the Year for the unexpected playoff trip and high seed.
(7) Portland Trail Blazers : 37-35
Despite a lot of good will and public support (including a projected # 2 seed from ESPN's Bobby Marks), Portland looks like the same ol' Blazers again with strong offense and poor defense. The feel-good Carmelo Anthony storyline ends poorly. Coach Terry Stotts shelves Anthony towards the second half of the season (due to poor defensive numbers), leading Anthony to bristle and ultimately work out a buy-out with the team.
(8) Phoenix Suns : 37-35
The Phoenix Suns officially turn the corner and become a winning team. Still, there's a stark contrast between their play with Chris Paul and without Chris Paul. And unfortunately for them, Paul's not as healthy as he had been the year before for OKC. He ends up missing 24 games, during which the Suns go 10-14.
(9) Houston Rockets : 36-36
The Houston Rockets play hardball and push the Philadelphia 76ers for a James Harden-Ben Simmons trade, but Daryl Morey and the Rockets stonewall them (feeling no time crunch, given that their stars are both young and on long-term deals.) Fortunately for the Rockets, James Harden sucks it up, starts the year in a Rocket uniform, and immediately looks like an MVP contender again with his incredible workload and efficiency. Alas, his new backcourt mate John Wall doesn't look quite at the same level in his first year back. Wall's struggles hurt the team's ceiling, and ultimately cast a dark cloud over their future (with Wall owed over $40M in each of the next 3 years.) The Harden trade may have been avoided for now, but still looks likely in the offseason.
(10) Golden State Warriors : 34-38
Returning star Steph Curry flashes the talent that made him a two-time MVP for stretches, but minor injuries keep derailing the momentum he has for an MVP push and for a playoff push for the team. Draymond Green doesn't snap back to prime form as many Warriors fans had hoped, leaving some doubt about his future with the club. Fortunately, rookie C James Wiseman steadily improves and looks like a future stud. Unfortunately, it won't be good enough to help the team for this season.
(11) Sacramento Kings: 32-40
The bad buzz about the Sacramento Kings turns around as a healthy De'Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III jumpstart an improvement from the year before. In fact, Bagley flirts with 20-10 averages, finishing just shy with 18.8 points per game. As a combo guard off the bench, Tyrese Haliburton is one of the most effective rookies in the class. Savvy analysts like Kevin Pelton push for him to win Rookie of the Year, but his limited minutes and counting stats leave him snubbed for the trophy.
(12) San Antonio Spurs : 31-41
The San Antonio Spurs get out to a strong 14-12 start thanks to an improved defense (and a lack of Bryn Forbes), leading many to campaign for Gregg Popovich as a potential Coach of the Year. Eventually the team lags behind in the crowded Western Conference and turns the reins over to the youngsters. DeMar DeRozan gets reduced time down the stretch as the team gets an extended look at Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell as the potential wings of the future.
(13) Minnesota Timberwolves : 29-43
Karl-Anthony Towns continues his blistering pace from three, but doubt lingers about the roster construction beyond that as the next best players (D'Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, and Malik Beasley) all look like scoring guards. Among them, Beasley appears to be the odd man out, leading to a trade to Orlando in a package that yields back Aaron Gordon. Gordon helps the team's defense, but not in time to make a playoff push for this particular year.
(14) Memphis Grizzlies : 27-45
After a disappointing start to the season, the Grizzlies see no rush to bring back Jaren Jackson Jr. for heavy minutes. Instead, they try to find the right supporting players for the long haul. To that end, PF Brandon Clarke confirms his strong rookie season was no fluke, setting himself up for starters' minutes next season (with the idea being that they'll shift Jaren Jackson to the center position full time as well.)
(15) Oklahoma City Thunder : 18-54
Sam Presti and new coach Mark Daigneault work in tandem to help secure a top lottery pick for the club. Thanks to newly expanded rosters, the Thunder team looks even more anonymous than the Hinkie Sixers by the end, playing the equivalent of G-Leaguers for the last few weeks of the season. While OKC lands the top slot going into the lottery, they end up with the # 3 pick and miss out on the chance to draft local product Cade Cunningham. Still, it may be a blessing in disguise, as other top prospects SG Jalen Green and C Evan Mobley project to be good complements to foundational piece Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS
PLAY-IN GAMES
The Charlotte Hornets earn some buzz (get it??) and some predictions that they'll knock off the Indiana Pacers, but the Pacers handle their business and win 1-0. Meanwhile, the 8th-9th series between Atlanta and Washington is a dogfight. Russell Westbrook helps the Wizards win Game 1 with a 23-9-11 line, but he goes an ugly 7-23 in the second game as the Hawks win out.
ROUND ONE
(1) Milwaukee vs. (8) Atlanta
Atlanta's momentum is short-lived, as Giannis Antetounkoumpo and company crush them like bugs, 4-1.
(2) Brooklyn vs. (7) Indiana
Indiana fights harder than expected and manages to tie the series 2-2, but Kyrie Irving has a massive game 5 (43 points) and helps lead to a 4-2 win.
(3) Philadelphia vs. (6) Boston
Forget tough series -- this is an all-out war. Doc Rivers battles against his old team, and has an ace up his sleeve in the mammoth Joel Embiid whose size causes fits for the Celtics. With better shooting around him this time, it's enough to knock off the Celts, 4-3.
(4) Toronto vs. (5) Miami
Another great R1 series goes to the wire in Game 7. The Raptors' length bothers Jimmy Butler inside, but Miami's shooters provide enough of a pop to pull it out, 4-3.
ROUND TWO
(1) Milwaukee vs. (5) Miami
Milwaukee needs to exercise their demons from last year, facing the time that knocked them off. This time around, Giannis is fully healthy and paired with a big-time playoff competitor in Jrue Holiday, who helps provide the difference as the Bucks win 4-2. At this point, many analysts feel like this will be "Giannis' year."
(2) Brooklyn vs. (3) Philadelphia
In another high-profile clash, coaches Steve Nash and Doc Rivers receive a lot of spotlight for their star-studded teams. Unfortunately, Rivers has no answer in the bank for Kevin Durant, who averages 34.8 points en route to a 4-2 victory.
ROUND THREE
(1) Milwaukee vs. (2) Brooklyn
All year long, it looks like Milwaukee may have shaken off their playoff troubles and finally achieved their destiny. However, after a 2-1 lead, the tide starts to turn. Jarrett Allen and Kevin Durant's length helps limit Giannis to a mediocre series, allowing the Nets to rattle off 3 straight wins and make the Finals.
WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS
PLAY-IN GAMES
A play-in series between former teammates James Harden and Chris Paul favors CP3 and his supporting cast, as the Suns officially cement their playoff spot. While Steph Curry and the Warriors haven't had a strong year, they manage to steal game 1 from Portland thanks to 6 threes from Curry. However, Damian Lillard and the Blazers crank it up a notch and squeak by in Game 2 to advance.
(1) L.A. Clippers vs. (8) Phoenix
Chris Paul gives his former team fits, but ultimately the Clippers pull out a slugfest, 4-2.
(2) L.A. Lakers vs. (7) Portland
A rematch of last year's R1 series goes in a similar direction, as the Lakers crush the Blazers 4-1. Anthony Davis averages 31-15, causing many to cite him as a top 3 player overall and future MVP.
(3) Utah vs. (6) New Orleans
The surging New Orleans Pelicans are a trendy pick for an upset, but the Utah Jazz continue to play the role of sleeper well, utilizing their defense and Donovan Mitchell's scoring (29.3 per game) to a comfortable 4-2 victory.
(4) Denver vs. (5) Dallas
Luka Doncic goes bananas against a soft Denver defense, logging 37-14-8 in Game 1 and 42 points in Game 3. However, Denver manages to get the job done in a 4-3 series. After the series, talk swirls about whether the Mavericks may need a third star to take the next jump. Mark Cuban spends the offseason on rosetta stone learning Greek.
ROUND TWO
(1) L.A. Clippers vs. (4) Denver
Another rematch from last year, but one that doesn't lead to a repeat outcome. The Clippers are extremely motivated to put the Nuggets away when they have the chance, turning a 3-1 lead into a 4-1 victory this time.
(2) L.A. Lakers vs. (3) Utah
The plucky Utah Jazz give the favored Lakers everything they can handle and even take a 2-1 lead in the series. However, some big performances from LeBron James (and some questionable officiating) help the Lakers rally back to win three in a row and secure the ballyhooed showdown against the Clippers.
ROUND THREE
(1) L.A. Clippers vs. (2) L.A. Lakers
A must-see TV rematch between Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James comes down to the "Others," as new Clippers' SG Luke Kennard plays much better than Lakers' shooters KCP and Kyle Kuzma. When the dust settles, the Clippers pull it out 4-2. After the series, the Lakers cite a lingering wrist injury to Anthony Davis as a potential reason why they didn't look 100%.
NBA FINALS
(2) Brooklyn Nets vs. (1) L.A. Clippers
The NBA world misses out on a KD-LeBron series (or a Kyrie-LeBron series, depending on your perspective), but we still get an awesome matchup with other superstars like Durant and Kawhi Leonard. Leonard and Paul George bother KD to some degree, but the Nets' backcourt of Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris keeps their offense moving nonetheless. Irving has a few signature games (37 in Game 2, 31-9 in Game 5) compared to a quieter Paul George (15.8 PPG in the series) and helps the BROOKLYN NETS win the NBA CHAMPIONSHIP in a 4-2 win. KD wins a close vote for Finals MVP, but Irving and coach Steve Nash get a lot of credit as well.
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The most lopsided postseason "rivalries" in the NBA (fair warning: lots of Lakers and Celtics)
The NBA has seen a lot of significant matchups throughout history. This is part of a series I've been doing that encompasses the MLB, NFL, and NHL as well. However, this will probably be the longest as the NBA has seen plenty of lopsided postseason rivalries in history. This is thanks in large part to the lack of parity in several decades, mostly the Lakers and Celtics.
I realized too late that I included division tiebreaker matchups as playoff series. This may have affected a few, but it does give you more to read I guess.
Without further ado, here goes:
Lakers over Nuggets (6-0): one of the main reasons why Denver has had a bad reputation of being first-round puppy chow and being the second-oldest franchise to never make the NBA Finals can be blamed on the Lakers (the Spurs too, more on that later). Denver has only won 7 postseason meetings with LA's premier team. They had chances to make the NBA finals in 1985 and 2009 but were curb-stomped by the Lakers. Ouch.
Celtics over Bulls (5-0): it is really unfortunate that MJ never had a chance to right the ship for the Bulls in this postseason matchup as they never met the Celtics in the postseason. The most stinging loss in the series for Chicago is probably their 2009 first round where they dropped 2 crucial OT games en route to a tough 7-game loss. Chicago was swept 3 out of 5 times in this matchup and most recently they blew a 2-0 lead to lose in 6 in the first round of 2017, though injuries played a major role in Chicago's collapse.
Celtics over Rockets (4-0): Houston has some pretty bad memories against Boston including getting two quick second-round exits in 1975 and 1980 (yes, they were in the same conference at one point) and getting denied 2 NBA titles in 1981 and 1986. Although outmatched, those NBA Finals still saw the Rockets put up a competitive fight only to lose to overall stronger teams. It was just too bad, but Houston did get its chance to shine in the 90s at least.
Celtics over Warriors (4-0): these playoff matchups took place in the 50s and 60s, and most of them were when the Warriors were still in Philadelphia. Boston was simply too strong of a team, although the Warriors came agonizingly close in the 1962 Eastern Division Finals only to lose on a Sam Jones game-winner with two seconds left in the decisive Game 7 (and the Celtics went on to win the Finals too, ouch). The Warriors did get a crack at Boston again in the 1964 Finals but they were quickly outgunned in 5 games.
Warriors over Rockets (4-0): one of the main reasons the Rockets haven't been able to advance very far under the leadership of James Harden can be blamed on the Warriors, as they've absolutely owned this playoff matchup. The worst came in the 2018 WCF when the Rockets blew a 3-2 series lead and missed 27 straight 3-pointers in the deciding Game 7 to lose what could've been a very winnable 101-92 decision in the end. Worse, the Dubs went on to win another NBA Finals that year.
Celtics over Royals (3-0): these playoff matchups are ancient as they took place in the very early days of the NBA (50s and 60s). Notably, these teams met in the Eastern Division Conference Finals two straight years from 1963-1964. The 1963 series was particularly exciting and saw the deciding game taken by Boston in an unreal 142-131 contest. Naturally, the Celtics won the title both years too.
Jazz over Clippers (3-0): the few years the Clippers made the playoffs in the 90s, the Jazz had their way with them in the first round. 1992 was especially rough as the Clippers almost came from 2-0 down only to drop the deciding Game 5 98-89 (Game 4 was notably played in Anaheim due to the riots). More recently, Lob City took another heartbreaking defeat in a 7-game First Round loss in 2017.
Suns over Warriors (3-0): the Warriors have historically been one of the runts of the Western Conference and usually played like one in the playoffs, and it showed against stronger teams like the Suns. Phoenix pulled off series wins over Golden State in the 1976 WCF, 1989 West semis, and 1994 first round. 1976 was especially painful as the Warriors blew a 3-2 lead, losing by 1 point in Game 6 and then dropping the decisive Game 7 at home, losing 94-86 and preventing a possible repeat title (Golden State won in 1975).
Heat over Nets (3-0): New Jersey and later Brooklyn just never stood a chance against those Miami teams led by D-Wade in 2005 and 2006 and later The Big 3 in 2014. Brooklyn only has two playoff wins against Miami in the 2006 East semis and the 2014 East semis. That 2014 series was notable in essentially driving a dagger in the superteam on crack that Brooklyn tried to pull off. The 2006 series win helped the Heat win the NBA title that year, and 2014 saw them back in the Finals.
Pistons over Pacers (3-0): as even as the regular-season matchup is (Indiana leads 101-97), Detroit has done far more winning in the postseason. Both their 1990 and 2004 NBA titles went through Indiana as did their march to the 2005 NBA Finals. 2004 was probably the hardest for Indiana as that was the ECF. Despite being the top seed, they were no match for Detroit's superb defense and were held to under 80 points for all but 1 game. Four of the six games in that matchup saw the winning team score less than 80 points, no team scored 90 points or more in that series, and the deciding Game 6 was an ugly 69-65 win. Worse for Indiana, they couldn't get Reggie Miller back to the Finals.
Warriors over Trail Blazers (3-0): these matchups all came in the late 2010s when Golden State was absolutely lighting up the league. Portland has been dominated in this matchup for a long time and has only one playoff win against the Warriors in these three matchups. As a Dub fan myself, I usually enjoy watching Damian Lillard play us since he's a hometown kid, but I feel bad that he's been smashed by his favorite team growing up.
Warriors over Pistons (3-0): these are some obscure matchups that took place primarily in the 70s where Golden State won over Detroit in the 1976 semis and the first round of 1977 (yes, Detroit and Golden State were in the same conference at one point). Most notably, however, the Warriors (then in Philly) got their second NBA title in 1956 over the Pistons (then in Fort Wayne), romping them in 5 close games.
Warriors over Hawks (3-0): these matchups all took place in the 60s, so they're very old. The most notable of the three is the 1964 and 1967 Conference Finals matchups. The Hawks came oh so close in 1964 only to drop the deciding Game 7 105-95. 1967 was also rough as home-court advantage finally failed St. Louis in a rough 112-107 loss in the deciding Game 6. At least the Warriors wound up losing both NBA Finals.
Knickerbockers over Cavaliers (3-0): you can blame the Patrick Ewing era for most of this, as his knicks romped over Cleveland in the 1995 and 1996 First Rounds. Yes, there was an era of Cleveland basketball before LeBron, but most of it was either terrible or highlighted by early playoff exits. New York was part of the reason why.
Cavaliers over Hawks (3-0): blame The King for this utter domination of a series. Not only has Atlanta lost every playoff matchup against Cleveland, they've been swept in all three of them. Atlanta finally made the ECF in 2015 as the 1-seed only to get completely blown out of the water by an honestly superior Cavs squad.
Cavaliers over Raptors (3-0): prior to Toronto winning it in 2019, they were puppy chow for LeBron and the Cavs from 2016-18. They actually put up a great fight in the 2016 ECF (their first Conference Finals in franchise history), evening the series at 2 after being down 2-0, but lost by 36 in Game 5 then 26 in the deciding Game 6. They got swept in 2017 and 2018, the latter of which came in spite of them being the 1-seed that year.
Cavaliers over Nets (3-0): the Nets simply weren't that strong of a team in the 90s and the Cavs made quick work of them in 1992 and 1993. The 1993 First Round matchup was pretty competitive but the Nets lost the decisive Game 5 99-89 in what would be Drazen Petrovic's final NBA game before his tragic death. More recently, LeBron rolled through New Jersey in the 2007 semis en route to his first NBA Finals appearance.
Lakers over Royals/Kings (10-1): no matter where the Royals/Kings franchise has been, they've always been easy pickings for the Lakers franchise. Their last playoff matchup, the 2002 WCF, was especially heartbreaking especially as some allegations that certain aspects of that series were rigged in favor of the Lakers came out (also, had Robert Horry's buzzer-beater when the Lakers were down 2 not happened, Sacramento wins the series). The Royals/Kings only postseason victory came in the 1951 Western Division Finals in 4 games en route to the franchise's only NBA title. So oddly enough, it's actually Sacramento that owns the longest active title drought.
Lakers over Warriors (6-1): don't let the 2010s fool you, the Warriors have been one of the NBA's inferior franchises for a very long time and were usually beaten into oblivion by their Southern California rivals. Throughout the 60s-90s, the Warriors could only claim the inaugural postseason meeting between the two: the 1967 Western Division Semifinals which San Francisco swept, a stepping stone to an NBA Finals appearance.
Bulls over Knickerbockers (6-1): this one was no contest, as MJ basically ate the Knicks for breakfast throughout his career. He's undefeated against them, as the Knicks would have to wait until his first retirement into baseball to finally get a postseason win over Chicago (on their sixth try...). That came in the 1994 East semis, and even then, it took seven games and a horrible foul call by Hue Hollins in Game 4 to give the Knicks free throws in the dying seconds to come back from 86-85 down, winning 87-86. MJ returned a few years later and once again destroyed the Knicks in the 1996 semis.
Celtics over Hawks (10-2): the Celtics owned the Hawks in the Finals when the latter was in St. Louis, then destroyed them in the first round and semis when the Hawks relocated to Atlanta. Although...the Hawks' only NBA title to date did come at the expense of Boston in 1958, a series St. Louis won in 6 games (also the last championship team to not feature an African American player, in fact, there was a whole controversy about why Bill Russell didn't play for the Hawks and it has in part to do with this). Atlanta later took the most recent playoff meeting between the two, a 6-game domination in the first round of 2016 that really wasn't that close.
Lakers over Nationals/76ers (5-1): all of these matchups were in the NBA Finals, and to put it lightly, let's just say LA has done a whole lotta more winning in this one. The Showtime Lakers got two of the wins while Kobe got another. Philadelphia's only win came courtesy of Dr. J and Moses Malone in the 1983 NBA Finals where Philadelphia gave Showtime a taste of its own medicine in an absolutely dominating sweep. It was also Philadelphia's last title and both Dr. J and Malone's only Finals win.
Knickerbockers over Bullets (5-1): the Knicks met the Bullets a whopping six straight years from 1969-1974, and led by the likes of Walt Frazier, the Knicks usually had a significant upper hand. Their 1970 and 1973 playoff series wins, in particular, helped propel the Knicks to their only 2 NBA championships to date. The only win by the Bullets in this matchup? The 1971 ECF (the Bullets were still in Baltimore at the time) which saw Baltimore win a close 93-91 matchup in New York in the deciding Game 7 after being down 2-0 and later 3-2 in the series (also, finally winning on the road).
Lakers over Trail Blazers (9-2): blame a lot of this on the Showtime Lakers and Kobe Bryant. Portland could've had deeper playoff runs certain years if they didn't keep on getting matched up with LA. 2000 probably still stings many Rip City fans, as Portland blew a late double-digit lead in the deciding Game 7 to once again drop the ball against the Lakers (oh yeah, they would go on to win the championship that year just to twist the knife some more). Portland's only two wins? The first came in the 1977 WCF in which Bill Walton obliterated Kareem en route to a sweep and the franchise's only NBA title to date. Portland could also claim a 4-game win in the 1992 First Round series en route to another NBA Finals appearance. Said series was famous for the decider having to be played in Vegas due to the infamous LA riots that year.
Lakers over Bulls (4-1): yes, there was a time these teams met regularly in the playoffs, and it was LA that came out on top throughout the 60s and 70s. However, this matchup is probably most famous for giving us the 1991 NBA Finals in which MJ and the Bulls put up a clinic against the Lakers in 5 games, giving the GOAT (yes, I'm saying that) his first of many NBA titles and all but ending the Showtime Lakers era.
Spurs over Grizzlies (4-1): this postseason matchup has not been fun for Memphis, who came in as the much weaker team all the time. Three of Memphis' four losses have been sweeps. Their only victory in this matchup was significant, however, as it was their first series win in franchise history and it's one of the few 8-vs-1 first-round upsets in NBA history. Zach Randolph had a monster series and the Grizzlies won all of their home games to move on.
Pistons over Bucks (4-1): Detroit romped over Milwaukee en route to their 1989 and 2004 NBA Finals victories. Additionally, Detroit won playoff matchups over the Bucks in 1976 and 2006. However, the Bucks were finally able to snatch a playoff series in this one, destroying the Pistons in a sweep in the 2019 First Round highlighted by The Greek Freak's 41 points in the deciding Game 4.
Cavaliers over Wizards (4-1): blame this one on LeBron. He took three straight playoff meetings over Washington from 2006-08 and was the reason why the Wizards were always first-round punching bags. The Cavs also got an additional 7-game series win over the Bullets (as they were then known) in the 1976 semis. Washington's only postseason series win in this matchup is a 1977 First Round matchup that Washington took in 3 games (notably, Game 2 was Nate Thurmond's final NBA game).
Celtics over Lakers (9-3): when you think of historical postseason domination, this is likely the series that comes to mind (at least it did for me). The Lakers were a punching bag for the Celtics in the Finals in the 50s and especially the 60s. They're the reason why Jerry West has just 1 NBA Finals win and Elgin Baylor never won a ring actually playing for the Lakers (LA did give him a ring for "honorary contributions", honestly a very kind gesture by the organization). The heartbreak continued in 1984, but Showtime finally won out in 1985 and 1987. More recently, the teams split the 2008 and 2010 Finals, with the Big 3 in Boston winning the former and Kobe getting his revenge in the latter.
Lakers over Pistons (9-3): whether in Fort Wayne or Detroit, LA has absolutely owned this matchup historically, although you can kind of blame the pre-70s matchups for that. Prior to 1989, all the Pistons organization could claim in this matchup was a 1955 Western Division Finals victory in 4 games en route to an NBA Finals appearance. Detroit then lost the 1988 Finals to the Showtime Lakers to go down 9-1 in this postseason matchup. But the Bad Boys got revenge in 1989, annihilating the Lakers in a sweep behind the likes of Isiah Thomas and Joe Dumars. Later, the Pistons upset Kobe and the Lakers in a 2004 Finals, wrecking them with solid defense over 5 games to claim their 3rd and last title to date.
Nationals/76ers over Knickerbockers (9-3): after winning both the 1951 and 1952 EDF over the Nationals (the former in 5, the latter in 4, unfortunately, the Knicks would lose both NBA Finals in 7 games), the 76ers have done far more winning in this series. Having Wilt and later Dr. J will help you out a ton. The most recent playoff matchup, however, saw the Knicks upend the Sixers in a First Round sweep in 1989 punctuated by Gerald Wilkins hitting the game-winner in OT with 6 seconds left in the deciding Game 3 to win the game for New York 116-115.
SuperSonics/Thunder over Rockets (6-2): I was actually a bit surprised to see this one. Seattle was simply too much for Houston to handle even when the Rockets had the likes of Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler. It took them their sixth try against Seattle to finally pull out a series win in 1997 West semis, and even then, it took 7 games and Seattle nearly came back from 3-1 down. When the Sonics relocated to OKC, Houston was thrashed in their 2013 First Round matchup but countered in 2017 as the Thunder without KD was no match. That series produced a hilarious moment in Andre Roberson getting fouled intentionally and even running away from Houston players to help his team not lose the game.
Spurs over Nuggets (5-2): the Nuggets have historically played awfully against San Antonio and it's shown in the postseason as well. Until last season, Denver could only claim a 3-2 first-round victory in the 1985 postseason (a series in which their offense scored 141 points in the opening game and was never held to under 111). More recently, the Nuggets won a hard-fought 7-game first-round series against the Spurs last postseason, pulling off a close 90-86 win in the decider to win their first postseason series in 10 years. They also notably won their first game in the Alamo City since 2012 in that matchup.
Celtics over Bucks (5-2): you can blame the 80s for Boston's generally superb performance over Milwaukee, as they took three out of the four playoff matchups in that decade. The only blemish was the 1983 semis in which Milwaukee famously swept the Celtics in Boston's first sweep since 1954 (read more about that sweep in the Celtics over Nationals/76ers section). More recently, Milwaukee crushed the living daylights out of Boston in the 2019 semis in 5 games in their deepest playoff run in years which unfortunately ended in the ECF.
Bulls over Cavaliers (5-2): long-time Cavs fans will likely get PTSD moments just hearing the name Michael Jordan, as he had some of his clutchest moments against the Cavs including The Shot and later The Shot II. Chicago also earned two sweeps in a row in 1992 and 1993. LeBron James helped right the ship just a little bit in the 2010 First Round (a dominant 5-game romp) and the 2015 semis (highlighted by a buzzer-beater by James in Game 4 and absolute destruction of the Bulls in the deciding Game 6, a 94-73 win), but there's still a little ways to go for Cleveland in this one.
Lakers over Spurs (8-4): the Showtime Lakers won the first four playoff matchups against San Antonio, but the Spurs started climbing back in the series with a 6-game win in the 1995 semifinals and a sweep in the 1999 semifinals over Kobe. The latter is notable for being a stepping stone to San Antonio's first NBA title. Kobe would have much more success against the Spurs in the 2000s, going 4-1 against them in that time with just the 2003 semis being the only blemish (a series that saw a Robert Horry shot almost win Game 5 and complete a comeback, San Antonio won a championship that year too). Most recently, San Antonio wrecked a disappointing and hobbled Lakers in the 2013 playoffs in a first-round sweep en route to the NBA Finals.
Lakers over Suns (8-4): the Lakers throughout the 70s and 80s were the far more dominant team and won the first 6 postseason matchups against Phoenix. The Suns, however, famously ended a string of 8 consecutive LA trips to the WCF by blasting the Lakers in 5 in the 1990 semifinals. Later, Phoenix survived a scare in the 1993 first round as the 8th-seeded Lakers went up 2-0 before Paul Westphal guaranteed the Suns would come back. They did in dramatic fashion as Dan Majerle tied Game 5 late and the Suns would go on to win in OT (Phoenix marched all the way to the Finals). Kobe Bryant, surprisingly, had just a 2-2 record against Phoenix as Steve Nash and Co were simply too much in the mid-2000s (Phoenix came back from 3-1 down in 2006 and destroyed LA in 5 in 2007), although his win in the 2010 series propelled the Lakers to their last NBA title to date.
Lakers over SuperSonics/Thunder (6-3): the Showtime Lakers and even the Lakers of the 90s had postseason field days against the Sonics, although it was actually Seattle that got the first two victories in this matchup: a 3-game victory in their 1978 First Round matchup that saw Seattle march all the way to the NBA Finals, and an exciting 5-game semifinals win en route to the franchise's only NBA title to date. Kobe Bryant owned a 2-1 postseason record over the franchise, winning in 1998 and 2011, but the franchise finally pulled off a series win against LA in 2012 as KD and Westbrook annihilated the Lakers in 5 games in the semifinals en route to an NBA Finals appearance.
76ers over Bucks (6-3): Milwaukee has taken more than its fair share of series losses to the Sixers, most recently a heartbreaking 7-game loss in the 2001 ECF. However, Milwaukee has still been competitive at times. A young Kareem led the Bucks to a dominant 5-game semis win in 1970 (which included a whopping 156-120 thrashing in Philly in Game 3). Later, the Bucks would win a tough 7-game semis matchup in 1986 with the go-ahead score in the deciding Game 7 actually coming from a Barkley goaltending (Milwaukee won 113-112). The last Milwaukee win came one year later in the 1987 First Round which Jack Sikma hit a fantastic game-winner in Game 3 and the Bucks romp to a 102-89 win in the deciding Game 5 in Dr. J's final game.
Hawks over Pistons (6-3): when the Hawks were in St. Louis, they absolutely dominated the Pistons in postseason play, losing just once in the 1956 East Finals as Fort Wayne became the first team to ever come back from a 2-0 deficit. Atlanta later took the 1986 First Round matchup, but Detroit countered with a dominant 5-game romp in the 1987 semis which saw Isiah Thomas hit the game-winner in Game 4 with 1 second left. The Pistons would later get a 5-game romp over Atlanta in the First Round of 1991, but Atlanta won the last two playoff series and that's where we stand.
Celtics over Nationals/Sixers (13-8): while not nearly as dominant as some of the other matchups on this list, it's still pretty much highlights just how dominant Boston was. The Nationals actually dominated the 50s of this matchup, sweeping the 1954 Eastern Division Semis in 2 games (after claiming a Round Robin victory earlier), taking the 1955 Conference Finals in 4 games en route to an NBA Finals win, and winning the 1956 semis in 3 games. However, it's been mostly Boston from here on out, though Philly famously stole the 1967 EDF in 5 (highlighted by Wilt's unofficial quadruple-double in Game 1 and Wilt's record-setting 41 rebound performance in Game 3) to disrupt Boston's dominant record of the 60s and score an NBA Finals berth. Philly also took a hard-fought 7-game 1977 semis matchup en route to the NBA Finals and dominant 5-game ECF in 1980 en route to another NBA Finals, and a nice 7-game series win in the 1982 ECF that saw the Sixers prevent another 3-1 comeback from Boston (they blew a 3-1 lead in the 1981 ECF) and famously got Celtics fans to cheer for them to beat LA in the deciding Game 7 (they didn't that year but would the following year, so the fans kinda got what they hoped for).
submitted by displacedindavis to nba [link] [comments]
bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis For December 17th and Review of December 16th
Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with the first of our daily basketball articles. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. This means there will be a ton of decent, or even great, plays that I am not on due to risk or other factors. That doesn’t mean you can’t love them though. Trust your research then trust your gut. Just because I currently have no interest in Harden against the Jazz doesn’t mean he can’t put up 80 points. It means that, to me, there’s more upside for the money elsewhere.
Also, since I am an older person, yngphnx will be stickying these posts daily and helping me out with the fancy layouts and formatting that I just don’t understand yet. Make sure to thank him for all the work he is doing with me behind the scenes.
Yesterday In Review: It was a typical small Sunday slate. That doesn’t mean there wasn’t money to be made! Let’s look at what I did:
Lineup- Lonzo Ball 5900 - 31.25 points - 5.3x
Delon Wright 3200 - 32 points - 10x
Kawhi Leonard 9000 - 52.5 points - 5.8x
Julius Randle 8100 - 38 points - 4.7x
Greg Monroe 3500 - 8.5 points - 2.4x
John Wall 9200 - 72.5 points - 7.9x
Luka Doncic 7300 - 49 points - 6.7x
Tomas Satoransky 3800 - 29 points - 7.6x
Total: 50000 - 319.75 pts - 6.395x
Entry Fees: $15 Winnings: $47 Daily ROI: +313%
Analysis- First thing to understand is Toronto was running incredibly thin. No Lowry. No VanVleet. No Siakam. That is on top of JoVal and Powell still being out. This left Toronto incredibly thin at the guard and at center. Delon and Kawhi were the first 2 people i locked in. Delon was going to be one of the only people getting run, at 3200, and he has a history of producing when given the minutes. Kawhi, additionally, was going to have to carry the team on his back. My original lineup used Lebron but, given the news, Kawhi seemed like an easier way to get similar points at a cheaper price.
The next lock was Randle. If you don’t know, or haven’t been paying attention, if Mirotic is out (which he was) Randle becomes a must play. He has regularly been between 50-60 points with Mirotic injured. It turns out he only hit 38, and not quite 5x value, but that is a play you have to make every single time. What’s more, if you look at DvP analysis, Miami is weakest against PF. Everything lined up, but, as you all know, quite often the perfect plays don’t pan out. This doesn’t mean it’s the wrong play, and it’s important to understand that. The right play, according to the math, and according to all the facts in front of you, is the smartest play you can make given all the information you have. Right or wrong in this regard does not hinge on success. If you play this slate 100 times, you play Randle 100x. 90 of those, he will get you 6x value at least.
Next, I wanted a piece of the highest projected game of the day, Wizards vs. Lakers. Checking DvP and looking at recent performance, the best way to attack the Wizards was at PG. Since I went down from Lebron to Kawhi, this made Lonzo the most obvious play. Additionally, with Satoransky playing SF, Oubre gone, Porter and Howard out, and Ariza not available yet, I had to choose between Wall and Beal. With the value that opened up from Toronto, I opted for Wall. Moreso, If you have watched the Wizards, Wall will occasionally let Satoransky run the point, essentially, when all 3 guards share the court. Also, with Austin Rivers gone, Sato was poised to eat up some additional usage. This made him a solid value play at 3800, given the minutes he would be seeing and the massive total.
This left me with 2 spots. Next, I really wanted to get Doncic in. Sacramento is weakest against PF, Doncic has been heating up, and Dallas would be playing at a much higher pace. Doncic should have been priced up at least 1000, but, since he wasn’t, i put him in.
This left me 3500 on the last spot. Looking at the value, I had to choose between OG and Monroe. I figured since OG was starting, he would see less usage since kawhi was going to have to take control. I also figured that, while Ibaka was good, if Denver went with Plumlee and Jokic, they might need Monroe to come in to provide a bigger body. Unfortunately, he quickly fouled twice and didn’t really get a chance when he got back in in the 3rd quarter.
The Daily Slate: Situations to take advantage of: - Blake Griffin vs MIL - the math says to attack the Bucks with PF. When that PF has the 14th highest usage rate in the NBA, he needs to be given heavy consideration. The only pause is that Giannis is an above average defender.
- Mike Conley vs GS - Similarly to Blake, the math says to attack the Warriors with PG. When that PG has the 26th highest usage rate in the NBA, he needs to be given heavy consideration. Especially with Draymond back and healthy, making life tougher on Gasol, Conley is going to have to shoulder a larger load. The pause here is a low vegas total (209.5) and the threat of a blowout (GS favored by 10.5). Regardless, the Grizzlies don’t get blown out, nor blow out, a lot of teams very often (though that 50 point win over the Warriors last year was awesome) so even if the game ends up with GS winning by 10, the odds are good it will be close through the duration giving Conley a good chance at normal minutes.
- Kings vs. Timberwolves - This game features a MASSIVE 231.5 OveUnder and a surprisingly close line of the Wolves only winning by 8. The Kings are attackable at any position, but the only 2 wolves in the top 50 in usage are KAT and Rose. Since getting Covington, the wolves have shored up their wing defense, and they are now easiest to attack at PF. With Bagley out, Bjelica got the start today and crushed it with 40 DK points. He has a great chance to do that again and somehow his price FELL 200 bucks since yesterday.
- The Zach LaVine injury - Last game, with Lavine out, Markannen stepped in and took some of the 40 shots per game LaVine left on the table (that’s a possible exaggeration) on his way to 41.75 DK points. Coincidentally, by FAR, the best way to attack the Thunder is with PF. Odds are very, very good this game blows out quickly, though. So be wary.
- Blazers vs. Clippers - This game has a high O/U of 219 and a spread of only 2. This should be a relatively fast paced game, with moderate defense, and the potential for both a higher score and overtime. One of the best ways to attack the Clippers is with PG, so Lillard, who has the 10th highest usage rate in the NBA, becomes someone to consider. Even better is that Dame, who was in the high 9000s and over 10k over the last few weeks, was dropped to 8500 for a tough matchup against the Raptors and DK forgot to put him all the way back up. Dame at 8800 is one of the most underpriced superstars on this slate. The only Clipper, on the other hand, that is in the top 50 in usage is LouWIll whose absence opens up his massive usage for people like Tobias Harris and Gallinari. One note- I recently learned that Montrezl’s usage and DK points/game go down precipitously when LouWIll is out. While his price is also cratering, he is someone i won’t play until he has shown he can turn it around.
Situations to avoid: - Jazz vs Rockets - While the Jazz D isn’t on par with their D in previous years (due, in part, to a noticeable increase in pace), it is still formidable. If Paul or Harden were out, i would have definite interest in the other one. With both of them in, for this matchup, I have no interest. Also I don’t want to play Capela against Gobert. The only piece in this game that the math points to is Donovan Mitchell, but he has been playing under his head. That being said, he’s taking the shots (he took 21 last game, though he only made 8). If he gets hot for a game, he will more than pay off his freefalling price tag, now sitting at 6800.
- Bulls vs. Thunder. While I do like Markannen today, and while PG and Russ are always viable threats to break a slate, when you only play one lineup, the Thunder are 13 point favorites, and the Bulls are missing their most prolific scorer, it makes more sense to find your points somewhere else. I WILL NOTE, on slates where value doesn’t open up I love taking my value from these games. If the Thunder are up 30 going into the 4th, Noel, Diallo, Harrison, RoLo and others have a chance to far exceed 3000-3500 price tags.
- Sixers vs. Spurs - Call me crazy, I just don’t like this spot for either team. Butler is back, which confuses things. So much so that this is one of two games that still don’t have Vegas totals. Additionally, the Sixers are on the 2nd night of a back-to-back. Will Butler play? I assume so, but we HAVE to assume he does. And if he does, he will play above average defense on DeRozan. Embiid will play incredible defense against LMA. And those are the 2 best bets for the Spurs to keep this game close. The best way to attack Philly is at PF where the Spurs are starting Davis Bertans. On the other side of the ball, the best way to attack the Spurs is at SF and Guards. This means the only play here i really like is Ben Simmons. But, given the price, there are better plays for the money. I wouldn’t tell you not to play him. I just wouldn’t, barring any breaking news (Butler and/or Embiid sitting)
- Grizzlies at Warriors - LOVE me some Conley today, but that is all i will even consider from this game. When everyone is healthy on GS it is too much of a roll of the dice. Additionally, I feel it spreads out the usage which decreases the potential ceiling you get from all 4 stars, decreasing your chance to win a tourney. Are there great spots? Sure. But not against the Molasses Grizzlies. Additionally this is the lowest projected game on the slate, and GS is favored by double digits, increasing the risk of a blowout.
Situations to monitor: - Milwaukee Injuries - Middleton and Brogdon missed their last game with injuries. We haven’t heard about their statuses for tonight. If they both miss, Giannis and Bledsoe are close to must plays. If they are both in, this becomes a much less appealing spot (though this still will be one of the better games on the slate in terms of overall production)
- Suns vs. Knicks - The Suns just acquired Austin Rivers and Kelly Oubre. We don’t know if they will be available and, if they are, how they will change the normal rotations the Suns use. Pay attention to the game, because the Suns beat writers are AWFUL and i wouldn’t trust any information they put out pregame. Additionally, the Knicks are on the second night of a back to back. Even though they were banged up, Burke, Frank Ntiliilinkinka (for now on, Frank N), and Lance Thomas played Sunday. Dotson, Trier, and Robinson were out. We don’t know who is playing tomorrow. We don’t know how the minutes will play out. We are going to have to check the news after shootaround and then before the game. IT SHOULD BE NOTED: this game has a healthy O/U of almost 220 and a spread of just 1.5 so there is a lot of good plays to be had here. There is just a lot more volatility then I like without concrete news.
So there we go. First article down, many more to go. I hope you all enjoyed it and learned something that will help you play today. If you have any questions, or any suggestions, please feel free to post a comment. If you strongly agree or disagree with any of my analysis, please feel free to say so. I love hearing both sides, and I especially love getting into discussions with folks who disagree with my thoughts. The marketplace of ideas makes us ALL better in the long run if we know how to parse information.
Best of luck today, everyone! Let’s all get rich together!
submitted by bathrobeDFS to dfsports [link] [comments]
Creating a Potentially Viable NBA Mid-Season Tournament. [OC]
I tried to make what I would think would be a viable mid-season tournament. Since the NBA seems really interested in doing one of these, it must address these three questions:
1.) Why would we want to do it? 2.) Why would the players want to play in it? 3.) What would be the incentive for teams to try? I will first establish what my tournament would be, then answer these three questions, and finally walk though a simulation on how this would go. My idea is to do a 30-team tournament that would start the week before All Star Weekend. In this simulation I am using the 2018-2019 season and using team's regular season standings at the All Star break this past year for seeding. I am making the assumption that the NBA will reduce the number of regular season games to accommodate a three week break in the middle of the season that will go like this...
Week 1: Mid-Season Tournament First Rounds Week 2: Mid-Season Tournament Final Rounds and All Star Break Week 3: Trade Deadline and week off for players The rules for my tournament are as follows (this tournament will only work if all 30 teams have G-League affiliates - a stated goal of the NBA anyway):
- Seeding is based on regular season record.
- This tournament will be open only to G-League Players, two-way contracts, and NBA players that have three years or less of service. G-League players can have more than 3 years of experience but will have to have played less than 10% of their parent team's regular season games.
- The winner of the tournament will receive the 15th overall pick that years draft. This will mean that 31 1st round picks will exist. The 15th overall pick will be in the lottery and have slightly higher odds of being a top-4 pick (~5% odds of moving up). This pick will be able eligible for trades.
- A financial incentive will be provided to the top-4 finishers in the tournament. The champions will receive $500k per player, 2nd place will receive $200k per player, and 3rd/4th place will receive $90k per player.
To answer the questions I posed above...
1.) Why would we want to do it?
Answer: This will be an opportunity to sell new tournament ad space. Young players will be showcased to the league. It will help legitimize G-League teams and make the G-League a real opportunity developmental league that teams will have incentive to focus on. Round 1 will rotate each year to North American cities that do not have an NBA team but may have potential for future NBA markets (Seattle, Las Vegas, Vancouver, Kansas City, Louisville, Mexico City, ect.). Round 2 will be held internationally and rotate through countries with NBA interest (ex. Bejing, China or Paris, France). This will help expand international interest and fan engagement.
2.) Why would the players want to play in it?
I can not think of a possible scenario where NBA veterans would want to play in any mid-season tournament. However, young stars who have not made much in their NBA contracts, and actually do have an incentive to help their team get better (by getting the 15th pick in the draft) will be more willing to try. G-League players will get to play under their affiliate team's banner, get experience with the coaching staff, and could earn a lot of money relative to what they make currently.
3.) What would be the incentive for teams to try?
I believe that this would be addressed by question 2, and the fact that there are team and financial incentives to win the tournament.
Below is my simulation with seeds for how this tournament could have went this past year. Reminder that lots of upsets will probably happen because "bad" teams oftentimes have better young talent. Here it goes:
Note 1: This kind of tourney would work great with 32 teams. As is the best remaining seed in "Round 2" will get to have a bye. No other byes are issued.
Note 2: For this year, I had Round 1 in Las Vegas, Nevada and Round 2 in Paris, France.
Note 3: Each round is re-seeded so the highest remaining seed becomes the #1 seed but I will keep original seeding in the formatting so that it makes more sense.
Round 1 (Las Vegas, Nevada) (Monday February 4th - Wednesday February 6th).
- Milwaukee Bucks (1) vs. Phoenix Suns (30) - Winner: Bucks (1)
- Golden State Warriors (2) vs. New York Knicks (29) - Winner: Warriors (2)
- Toronto Raptors (3) vs. Cleveland Cavilers (28) - Winner: Raptors (3)
- Denver Nuggets (4) vs. Chicago Bulls (27) - Winner: Nuggets (4)
- Indiana Pacers (5) vs. Atlanta Hawks (26) - Winner: Hawks (26)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (6) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (25) - Winner: Grizzlies (25)
- Boston Celtics (7) vs. Washington Wizards (24) - Winner: Celtics (7)
- Philadelphia 76ers (8) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (23) - Winner: 76ers (8)
- Portland Trailblazers (9) vs. Dallas Mavericks (22) - Winner: Mavericks (22)
- Houston Rockets (10) vs. Orlando Magic (21) - Winner: Magic (21)
- Utah Jazz (11) vs. Miami Heat (20) - Winner: Jazz (11)
- San Antonio Spurs (12) vs. Detroit Pistons (19) - Winner: Spurs (12)
- Los Angeles Clippers (13) vs. Charlotte Hornets (18) - Winner: Clippers (13)
- Sacramento Kings (14) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (17) - Winner: Kings (14)
- Brooklyn Nets (15) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (16) - Winner: Lakers (16)
Highest Seeds Remaining = Bucks (1), Warriors (2), Raptors (3), Nuggets (4), Celtics (7), 76ers (8), Jazz (11), Spurs (12), Clippers (13), Kings (14), Lakers (16), Magic (21), Mavericks (22), Grizzlies (25), Hawks (26)
Round 2 (Paris, France) (Saturday Feb. 9th and Sunday Feb. 10th) Note: Top seed remaining gets a bye.
Bye: Bucks (1)
- Warriors (2) vs. Hawks (26) - Winner: Hawks (26)
- Raptors (3) vs. Grizzlies (25) - Winner: Raptors (3)
- Nuggets (4) vs. Mavericks (22) - Winner: Mavericks (22)
- Celtics (7) vs. Magic (21) - Winner: Celtics (7)
- 76ers (8) vs. Lakers (16) - Winner: Lakers (16)
- Jazz (11) vs. Kings (14) - Winner: Kings (14)
- Spurs (12) vs. Clippers (13) - Winner: Spurs (12)
Highest Seeds Remaining: Bucks (1), Raptors (3), Celtics (7), Spurs (12), Kings (14), Lakers (16), Mavericks (22), Hawks (26)
Round 3 (Paris, France) (Monday Feb. 11th and Tuesday Feb. 12th)
- Bucks (1) vs. Hawks (26) - Winner: Hawks (26)
- Raptors (3) vs. Mavericks (22) - Winner: Mavericks (22)
- Celtics (7) vs. Lakers (16) - Winner: Celtics (7)
- Spurs (12) vs. Kings (14) - Winner: Kings (14)
Highest Seeds Remaining: Celtics (7), Kings (14), Mavericks (22), Hawks (26)
Semi-Finals (All Star Week: Charlotte, North Carolina) (Friday Feb. 15th)
- Celtics (7) vs. Hawks (26) - Winner: Celtics (7)
- Kings (14) vs. Mavericks (22) - Winner: Kings (14)
Championship (All Star Week: Charlotte, North Carolina) (Sunday Feb. 16th)
Celtics vs. Kings - Winner: Kings
Prizes (money might be higher if this takes off an gets a lot of ad revenue):
- Kings - $500k per player and the 15th overall pick in the 2019 NBA draft.
- Celtics - $200k per player
- Mavericks and Hawks - $90k per player
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bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for February 13th and Review of February 12th
Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter
@bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!
Yesterday In Review: My Lineup- -
Name | Price | DKP | Value | Proj Own | Real Own | Diff |
Wright | 3500 | 26 | 7.4x | 56.7% | 50.1% | 6.6 |
Bullock | 3400 | 29.75 | 8.75x | 37.3% | 24.3% | 13 |
LeBron | 10500 | 78.75 | 7.5x | 42% | 40.3% | 1.7 |
AD | 10300 | 16.5 | 1.6x | 13.1% | 18% | 4.9 |
Vuc | 9500 | 56.75 | 6x | 24% | 10.6% | 13.4 |
CJ Miles | 3000 | 18.5 | 6.2x | 0.5% | 2.1% | 1.6 |
Morris | 5000 | 30.5 | 6.1x | 12.3% | 18.2% | 5.9 |
McGee | 4800 | 10.5 | 2.2x | 33.8% | 51.2% | 17.4 |
Total | 50000 | 267.25 | 5.345x | | | |
Best Possible Lineup- -
Using the free lineup rewind tool on fantasycruncher, I find the highest possible lineup that could have been played.
Name | Price | DKP |
Trae | 6700 | 54.5 |
Bradley | 3300 | 52 |
LeBron | 10500 | 78.75 |
Gay | 5700 | 46 |
JoVal | 4200 | 39.5 |
Iguodala | 3800 | 31.25 |
Horford | 6300 | 49.5 |
Vuc | 9500 | 56.75 |
Total | 50000 | 408.25 |
Analysis- I loved Lebron, I thought AD starting at PF was too good to pass up, and I thought Vuc starting against Okafor was also too good to pass up. I wanted to get the punts of Wright, Bullock and CJ Miles in and this left me exactly enough to squeeze in McGee, who I also loved. AD sucked so much I can’t even begin to describe it. McGee got into foul trouble and never recovered. Everyone else crushed it. Oh well.
The Daily Slate: Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions.
If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down.
In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors.
Dame Lillard - In an 11 game slate, we don’t have to worry as much about ownership since everything will be so spread out, but I expect Dame to be REALLY underowned compared to the Warriors he’s going against. There were a few people I liked for this slot, D’Angelo Russell and KAT, specifically. But there are a few factors that push my preference today onto
Dame (8600). First, Dame is someone who, when he is playing well, gets priced around 10k. That should show you by itself he has an impressive ceiling. While it’s rare (as all ceiling games are), Dame has the talent to get you 80 DKP if everything goes well for him. The first advantage I give to Dame is the fact this game has the highest projected total on the slate, at 235, with a wonderfully low spread of GS -4.5. Golden State plays at one of the fastest paces in the NBA while the Blazers have been around 20th all season. So another bonus is the great pace up matchup Dame will get. In terms of usage, no one on the Blazers even comes close to Dame. While CJ and Nurkic will go back and forth as the #2 option, and both will sneak into the top 50 in the NBA in usage, Dame is top 20 all season, and we can count on him to continue that. Another thing that pushes me to Dame is the defensive setup of the Warriors. First, Cousins will be out for rest purposes, meaning one of the better defenders the Warriors have will be off the court. While Looney is not awful, Dame will have a much easier time making shots, getting passes through, and attacking the rim now. Second, Durant and Dray are both very good defenders. Durant is 10th among starting SFs and Dray is 1st among starting PFs in DRPM. Dray is going to make it really tough for Nurkic, and Durant will make it hard for the Forwards here. Klay, though, is the 5th worst SG in terms of DRPM and Curry is mediocre. He is 44th out of 96 PGs, placing him around starters like Elf, Teague, and DSJ, none of whom are considered anything special. This means that, no matter what, Lillard is going to be matched up with the weakest defenders this team has to offer. If this game manages to stay close, it is because Dame had one of his crazy games. He is someone who can get you 30 DKP in a quarter. If they come out playing tonight, this is going to be the game of the night both from a fantasy and game perspective. I hope you all take my advice on this one.
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order): - D’Angelo vs. Cavs - My initial pick for MSC before I dug in more, D-Lo (8500) has been on fire lately. While he has thrown in a couple of bad games along the way, D’Angelo’s last few games have seen him get 60.25, 36.25, 54, 29.25, 33, 47.75, and 52.5 DKP. He is not going to be safe by any means. But what he is going to do is produce here. He is matched up against Collin Sexton, who is the worst defender in the NBA. The Cavs are awful at D as a team, anyway. I know the Cavs are one of the slowest teams in the NBA (they have been bouncing from 25th-30th lately), and Vegas has given an appropriate 221 total cause of it. But the spread of -6.5 means this should wind up being a close game, with a ton of points scored. Most of which will be by D’Angelo. He will be another one of the first people I lock in today. DeMarre (4600) will be back which makes it hard to play anyone else besides Joe Harris (4600), who is the only guy here who should see a guaranteed 30 minutes.
- Underpriced Cavs - If you read what I said about D’Angelo, you know that the Cavs are really, really slow and the Nets are the fastest team in the NBA over the last few weeks. So that means the Cavs, who normally see one of the lowest number of possessions a game, will see a marked increase which should help everyone’s production. Again, that 221 total is not as high as some other teams’ today, but it is astronomical compared to the fact the Cavs normally live around the 205 range. Love (7000) is far too overpriced for someone playing 16 minutes right now. However, this opens up a ton of Center minutes. And those are Center minutes against the Nets, so they are worth a lot. This means Nance (6700) and Chriss (3900) are both fantastic plays again today. I know Cedi (5600) and Zizic (4800) are both probable, and either could cut into the production of both these guys, so pay attention. Either way, though, whoever is going to be getting the bulk of PF/C minutes in this game need to be played. Right now, that is Nance and Chriss. If that changes, so will I. As risky as they are, Sexton (4900) and Clarkson (5300) are just underpriced for how many points the Cavs are supposed to score and their normal role in all that. If you want a punt, and he starts again, Knight (3200) could get 20 minutes and pay off. It’s risky, but someone to consider if a lot of value doesn’t open up today.
- Underpriced Pistons - No one is going to say a game against Boston is a ripe environment for fantasy production, but there are still some places we can get behind here. First Blake (8900), who should be near 10k, who gets a matchup with Marcus Morris (Who is awful. The only really horrible defender on the Celtics team). And Blake is going to make him pay all game. If he doesn’t get 50 DKP I would be pretty surprised. Ditto for Drummond (9100). He’s a little more expensive, and only has C eligibility, so it’ll be tougher to get to him, but he will get close to 40 minutes and he is the type of Center that can give Horford fits. This would be even better for him if Baynes plays and gets the start somehow. I also want to point out Kennard (3900) who will get near 30 minutes every game and shoot a bunch. Ditto Ellington (3800). I know he was pretty chalky and he put up 9 DKP in 19 minutes. But you have to look and see that he shot 1-8 including 7 threes. If some of those go in, he may get more minutes, and he certainly would have paid off his cheap price tag. While people may be scared here, I will be in on Ellington (barring some amazing value that will open up later on at some point).
- KAT - The last time couple times I put KAT (10300) as my MSC play of the day, he got into immediate foul trouble against an awful team. Both times, he finished the first half with, like, 10 DKP. And, somehow, both games, he wound up over 40 DKP. Not that he saved your day, but he showed just how many points he is going to get you in a half against a bad team when everything goes right. Well, right now the place you have to attack the Rockets is at C, where they have an overworked and overmatched Faried as the only real option. KAT has inches and skill on him and he should feast here. Wiggins (6500) is questionable, so, should he miss, it would be another big boost to KAT. It would also give a boost to Teague (5800) who should get 35 minutes again and is underpriced for being healthy. Ditto Rose (5900) who is probable, and would eat into a lot of the usage Wiggins would leave behind. I also need to point out Saric (4600). If you didn’t follow the game, you would have missed that Saric got 2 fouls within a minute of the game starting. Seriously, like, the first two plays of the game were Saric fouls. He managed 33 minutes, anyway. He only got 2 more fouls the rest of the game, and he wound up with 37.5 DKP. If he gets another start, I will be a big fan of his as well. If Wiggins winds up missing, I will lock KAT and him in quickly.
- Houston - I honestly don’t think anyone on this Houston team is priced high enough you need to get off them immediately. Harden (11800) has a shoulder injury, but he got more than 60 DKP against Dallas last game, and this is a much better matchup. He is going to be doing everything he can to keep his 30 point streak going, and I would be shocked if he doesn’t continue it. CP3 (7600) has 44, 49.5, 40.5, and 38.5 DKP over his last 4 games. He should definitely get into the 40s again. Like I said a week ago, he is going to be 8k soon, so get on him before he gets there. Faried (6600) is getting harder to recommend. I know they need him. I know he’s gonna get the minutes. I know KAT is a bad defender. But he just keeps producing at value, and I just don’t see a lot of wiggle room with Harden on the court. Austin Rivers will be out for this game, which makes the trio of Gordon (4500), Green (3800), and Shumpert (3800) much better plays. I would consider any one of them in a tourney, but I wouldn’t play them all together.
- Nuggets - If you are going against the Kings, odds are you are in a nice pace up spot, the game has a high total, and it’s projected to be close. All 3 of those check out today for the Nuggets. They are also going to be seeing a really, really poor D. I know it’s beyond obvious, but Jokic (10100) should be priced, like, 1500 more in this matchup. He was another one of my considerations for MSC play today, and I could totally understand wanting to jump on that before anything else. Don’t ignore Murray (6200), though. He has shown you he can get you 50 DKP and Sacramento is incredibly bad against PGs. Fox is not a good defender, and Murray gets enough to do with Jokic that both can easily pay off here. Barton (5500) and Beasley (5200) are underpriced for their minutes/roles with Harris out, but I will still have a hard time getting to either today. I think they are safe, with a decent ceiling, but I think there are a few better spots to attack. That being said, If either wound up in my lineup, I wouldn’t be upset.
- Warriors - Cousins will be rested for this game, which means the FarTooManyCooks will be downgraded to just TooManyCooks for one game. But their prices have stayed down as if Cousins was playing, so there is plenty to take advantage of here. If you read my MSC section on Lillard, you know this game has the highest total on the slate, with a great spread of GS -4.5. Portland is an average defense that can be taken advantage of by big SFs and wing shooting. Wouldn’t you know it, that just happens to make Durant (9300) and Curry (9200) both awesome plays. Honestly, at these prices, they could both EASILY pay off. Klay (6500) will line up against CJ, who is the weakest link on this team, and will see a nice production bump with Cousins out. As I always say, Dray (6000) is a fine play every game he is below 7k. The more he is under 7k, the better the play. And with Cousins out, he gets a bump as well. Looney (3700) should get the start, and get 30 minutes. I will love him here. Ditto Iguodala (3800) who will get 30 minutes and a ton of run in this game.
- Suns vs Clippers - This game doesn’t have a total or spread yet, for some reason. But I wouldn’t be surprised if, when it all comes down to it, this emerges as the highest total of the day. If it’s over 240, I wouldn’t be shocked at all. I also think both teams are bad enough the spread should be something along the lines of LAC -4 or something around there. Basically, this is probably the best game on the slate and I will probably go heaviest here. I expect most people to be on GS/POR and HOU/MIN, and for good reason. I have talked about how much I love those games. But the people in this game could get just as many FP as the people in that game, and at a fraction of the total price. The most expensive player here is Booker (8300). With Tyler Johnson Questionable with a sprained ankle, he may be pushed back into more PG minutes, meaning if he doesn’t get you 50 DKP today I would be shocked. I will also point out that the Clippers and Suns are the two worst teams in the NBA against Centers. No team gives up as many points to a position as these two give up to Centers. So sign me up for all of the Ayton (6700), Montrezl (6900) and, if you don’t mind the risk, Zubac (4000) and Holmes (3700). The Clippers are almost as bad against PF as they are against C, so I would also give some serious consideration to Jackson (5900). If you play Jackson, i don’t recommend Oubre (5700), but if you are off Jackson, get on the Oubre wagon. Either of these two could get you a 50 DKP game tonight and the other one will get you 15DKP. I also love LouWill (7100) who always goes underowned since he comes off the bench. Additionally, Shamet (4000) has 26.75 and 28 DKP over his last couple games. He is getting 30+ minutes and, against this Suns team, he can push 30 DKP again pretty easily.
Situations to be careful of(in no particular order): - Bucks vs. Pacers - This is going to be a defensive game, between 2 defensive teams. I know the Bucks have been playing at the 3rd fastest pace lately, but the Pacers are plodding and slow, currently ranked 22nd. I don’t like playing people against Bledsoe (6900) or Collison (5800). Brogdon (5500) and Wes Matthews (4400) will be paired against each other. Both of these guys are underpriced for this game. I don’t know if Brogdon has the ceiling to win you a tournament, but he certainly should pay off his value here and could certainly exceed it. Wes Matthews played 30 minutes in his first game with the Pacers, and he shot the ball 10 times in a game that only had 189 total points. This one is projected to have 218.5. It’s certainly possible Matthews shoots more than that and reaches value just from raw points. Middleton (6400) and Bojan (5600) are both fairly priced. Meaning I expect them to get about 4.5x-5x. That doesn’t mean they are good plays, it means they aren’t. I don’t want fair priced players, I want underpriced players. I liked Bojan a lot more before Wes got here, taking a bunch of his shots. Giannis (11200) is a freak and no one can stop him. If he isn’t owned tomorrow, I don’t know how you can’t take a chance. Thad Young (6000) is a fine defender, but won’t have a chance against Giannis. Young himself is also fairly priced. I know MIL has been weak against PF on the year, I just don’t see him getting enough value at that price. Speaking of fairly priced people- Myles (6600) and BroLo (4900).
- Sixers vs Knicks - The Sixers have 5 all stars and the Knicks are the worst team in basketball. I know you can never assume anything, but.. I mean.. Come on. The Sixers are coming off a tough loss to the Celtics last night. After the game, Embiid (10600) blamed the loss on himself, saying “he sleep walked through 3 quarters.” Assuming they don’t rest him today, I imagine he will take that personally and try to come out today and show it was a one game problem. I know he has a tough matchup against Jordan (5700), who is one of the best defenders in the NBA, but Embiid has shown he is matchup proof. I think this will be a game they need to play Jordan closer to 30 minutes, so he is cheap at this price. I also like the PGs, here, with Simmons (8400) and DSJ (6300) seemingly safe choices if this game stays close, but far overpriced if they only get 3 quarters. My favorites plays here are the cheap Knicks, Kadeem Allen (4100) and Mitch Robinson (4100). Both dudes are getting back up run, getting serious minutes, and putting up some serious PPM in the time they get. If this game blows out (or when), they are going to soak up all that time and usage too. I love both of these guys here.
- Wizards vs Raptors - A 233 total? Yay! A TOR -11 spread? Booo. And I think, with Toronto at home, joined by Jeremy Lin (4300), that -11 is overly generous. Kawhi (9400) hasn’t been producing for his price lately, and I imagine that will continue in a game that he doesn’t need to dominate. Siakam (6500) is the safest of the big guys (who we want to attack Washington’s biggest weakness with), so, if you think this stays close, I would recommend you give him heavy consideration. But the Center situation, which is the best place to attack Washington, is a mess with Gasol (6800) throwing a spanner in the works. I really have no idea how you can pay that price for him or Ibaka (6100) when neither may get more than 24 minutes. And that’s if this game stays close. The one play I want here is Jeremy Lin. Give me ALL the Jeremy Lin. Toronto is also weakest against Centers which means I have a ton of interest in Portis (6300). As a bench player, he will probably get blow out run anyway since they want to keep him around 30 minutes. I don’t think anyone is safe in this matchup, especially since we don’t know how the coaches respond to various situations with their new rosters, but Portis is vastly underpriced for the 6x he should easily provide you here. If Sato (5900) plays, I have no interest in anyone else here. If he misses, you have to make a decision- if you don’t assume blow out, Beal (8700) will get you 40+ minutes and 60 DKP again. If you think this game does blow out, and they limit Beal’s minutes, McRae (3500) would be the best play for you.
- Heat vs Mavs - A spread of DAL -2.5? Alright! A total of 209? Yuck. A game between the 27th and 29th paced teams in the NBA? Oh god, no thanks. That doesn’t mean you can’t get anything from this game (or any of these games), it just means I would limit your exposure. Doncic (8800) should be given serious consideration every game until he is 10k. Seriously. There’s no need to go further than that. I will also add Hardaway (5100) is in the best place to attack the Heat. I know he’s coming off a bad game in which he was chalky, but he is a scoring dependent player. If he shot doesn’t land, he will screw you. If he shot goes in today, he could win you a ton of cash at his low price. The only Heat players I would consider here are Waiters (4300) and James Johnson (4100), neither of which I like that much anyway.
- Kings of Spreading Minutes - It’s just hard to trust any of these Kings players to get a considerable chunk of minutes. Worse yet, they play completely different on the road then they do at home for some reason. WCS (5300) tends to get less minutes (and produce worse). If you think that’s all malarkey, they are going to need him against that huge DEN front court, but I can understand If you, like me, are too hesitant. Really, the only place DEN is weak is on the wing, at SG/SF. With Harris out, this is a spot DEN has really had a really hard time with. For this reason, if I am going to go anywhere here (and, again, if I do, I will acknowledge they probably only get 30 minutes) I am going with Hield (6600), Bogdan (4900) and Barnes (5000) but in reverse order. I also think they are going to need massive minutes from Bagley (5900) so, again, if you are not averse to the risk, he is someone who has shown you he can get you 12 DKP or 55. Be prepared for anything in between that.
Situations to monitor: - Kyrie QUESTIONABLE - When they announced Kyrie would miss last night’s game, they also said they didn’t know what his status for tonight would be. Since we won’t get that information for a long time (most teams don’t do a shootaround on the 2nd day of a back-to-back), it means we should plan for both eventualities. If Kyrie (9400) plays, he will line up against R Jax, one of the worst defenders in the NBA, and I will be all over him. If he is out, I will have a hard time picking who I like on this Boston team. I think Horford (6200) would have to play extra minutes given the size of the Pistons front court. I would love him at that price. One thing we have to be careful of, though, is the Pistons have been pretty incredible at limiting fantasy points the last month. Over that time, they have been above average against every position (though weakest against PG/SG). The incredible thing, though, is they have only allowed 211.3 fantasy points per game, total. The next closest team is the Pacers who only allow 214.9. This is mainly a function of the Pistons playing at a snail’s pace recently. But, whatever the reason, the Celtics are only 18th in pace, so it’s not exactly like we should expect a fast paced game with no defense anyway. Given the Pistons weakness, I would also consider Smart (4800) and Brown (5100) who would get a lot of extra shots with Kyrie being out.
- Dunn QUESTIONABLE / Conley QUESTIONABLE- a CHI -1.5 spread? Yay! A 203 total? Oh God, no! Two teams who have been playing at slow paces, this game is just not the best place to look when you have 10 other games to choose from. If Dunn misses, LaVine (7300) would be an interesting play, but I would look more at Arcidiacono (3500) who should get the start and a bunch of minutes. If Conley misses, I think you have to look to Delon Wright (3600) again. I also think that Avery Bradley (3400) had a career game. I wouldn’t chase those points, but he is only 3400 so it’s not like you have to commit a huge chunk of your salary. It’s hard not to pay that off if Conley misses, and you saw how high his ceiling could go. They said JoVal wouldn’t play back-to-backs, so that would leave us with only JJJ (6100), Rabb (5800), and Noah (4000). If they rest Noah as well, we have to be all over the other two guys. If all 3 play, Noah is cheap and can get you 30 minutes now, apparently.
Hey, You. I still love you. Now let’s win some money tonight!!!
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bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for December 26th and Review of December 25th
Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you like this information, I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium.
Yesterday In Review: Lineup- Name | Price | DKP | Value | Proj Own | Real Own | Diff |
Dame Lillard | 7800 | 34.75 | 4.5x | 15% | 24.1% | 9.1% |
Harden | 10900 | 64.5 | 5.9x | 30% | 42.9% | 12.9%!! |
PJ Tucker | 4300 | 22.75 | 5.3x | 15% | 31.3% | 16.3%!! |
Kevon Looney | 3500 | 20.75 | 5.9x | 7.5% | 9.6% | 2.1% |
Ivica Zubac | 4400 | 39.75 | 9x | 22.5% | 32.8% | 10.3%1! |
Russ Westbrook | 10300 | 53.75 | 5.2x | 22.5% | 10.5% | 12%!! |
Kyle Korver | 3300 | 20.25 | 6.1x | 1% | 6.7% | 5.7% |
Ricky Rubio | 5400 | 31.25 | 5.8x | 20% | 44.5% | 24.5% |
Total | 44900 | 287.75 | 5.767x | | | |
Entry Fees: 25.25
Winnings: 44
Profit: $18.75
ROI: 74.2%
Analysis- This was a unique slate for a couple of reasons: First, the incredibly soft pricing. It made it a lot more possible to play a couple of the big guys without sacrificing that much. It also let you play a lineup with Harden, Simmons, Embiid, Morris, and Kyrie, which I got off eventually. Second, even with the soft pricing, there was no one projected at more than 35% ownership. This made it more possible to just pick whoever you liked with less regard for how much other people were also on him. Third, There was only one game at a time, for hours. For someone, like me, who didn’t start anyone until HOU/OKC, that gave us a couple extra hours to finalize our roster based on new information.
I knew I was going to play Harden today. That was not a question. He had no reason for being priced that low, and his projected ownership wasn’t high enough. Even if the projected ownership hadn’t been so wrong, I still would have been on Harden under 50% ownership.
The second player I locked in was Zubac. Once McGee was ruled out, I knew Zubac was a lock. As I stated yesterday, McGee was out for 2 games before Chandler got the illness that originally caused him to miss a game. In the first game, Chandler got the start. They decided, though, this did not work and they let Zubac start the 2nd game and let Chandler come off the bench. Given they liked this better, and Chandler was coming off an injury, I knew Zubac would be starting and still getting enough of a run to more than pay for a 4400 salary. I hope you weren't scared off by Chandler. Zubac should have also been at least 50% owned today.
The third/fourth players I locked in were Tucker and Looney. Both punts were underpriced for their recent production and opportunity. I also baked in the possibility of a blow out in the GS/LAL game, which would have given Looney, who could have gotten 20 DKP regardless, some extra run. This also allowed me the flexibility I needed to get a couple more of the stars I wanted.
When the noon games went off, I had a different lineup. I thought the 20% ownership on Giannis opened up lesser ownership on Russ. If Giannis had been 10% owned, I would have stayed with Kyrie/Simmons/Embiid. It turns out that, while my ownership instincts were right, and Westbrook had 38+ DKP in the first half, he left PG13 run the 2nd half and barely finished over 5x.
This led me to look at Dame Lillard. As I said in my analysis, Dame was probably the most incorrectly priced player on the slate. Down from a 10100 high, the 7800 is crazy for someone who could put up an easy 50 DKP in any close game. I was (and am still) convinced the ownership in POUTAH is going to be WAY under what it should be, so I wanted to take a chance at Dame at what could be a 7x spot. And that’s not a ceiling either.
I tried to get some combination of people I liked in the 4000 range, but the possibility of running Dame back with Rubio who, while I wasn’t really high on, was cheap enough and what I thought would be too low an ownership, again (assuming the ownership projections are right, which, pardon my cynicism, they rarely are). If Lillard gets hot, and this game features more points than people would expect (the Jazz play MUCH faster this year) it was too much upside to ignore. This left me with 3400. I had a couple of options, but the fact the they’ve been giving Korver more of a chance, because they like how he spreads out the floor, swung the pendulum to him for my last spot. While there’s still 2 minutes left in the 3rd quarter of the LAL/GS game, I am still confident in all 3 of the plays from this game, and all of their abilities to get to 7x tonight.
The Daily Slate: For those of you who didn’t read my Good Chalk/Bad Chalk article on yesterday’s slate, I did my best to talk about this quasi-metric I use to help me make decisions called Matchup Specific Ceiling. Since I think this is important and relevant to how I analyze things, I am going to cut and paste it today. In the future, if I need to reference this, I will present a direct link:
I want to talk about something before I get into the Durant situation. There is a quasi-metric I use I don’t think i’ve ever seen before that often helps me make decisions. I call it Matchup Specific Ceiling. I would say that the absolute highest a person can score, the General Ceiling, is a factor that doesn't account for any specific thing except "the most points a guy has scored." Even if this ceiling came on a day when the rest of his team was injured, he went against the worst defender in the league, at the highest pace, the "ceiling" never changes. Matchup Specific Ceiling attempts to use the matchup to find what the nightly ceiling for a person would be. My argument would be that, while we consider someone’s ceiling as a static number, there are any number of factors that can bring a potential ceiling down (much like someone’s normal projection is reduced.) I will say, off the bat, It’s really hard for me to explain this. I have been trying for the last few days to get out what I thought was an understandable reasoning but it’s been difficult. So, In order to explain what I mean by this, let’s take a look at Anthony Davis.
When people talk about Brow (and others) we mention his ceiling and his floor and his projections. All of these things are useful as a general tool, but much less useful as a slate specific guide. Brow’s “absolute floor” is, i’d say about 30 points. This season, in games he has played more than 25 minutes, Brow only has one game under 40 DKP, but that was 31 DKP in 38 minutes on Nov 5th at OKC. I’d say his ceiling is about 100 DKP since i’ve seen him put up 100 DKP and a couple 90 DKP performances last year. However, while a general guide, this doesn’t really tell us anything about his specific matchup, just that, if everything goes right, Brow is an unstoppable freak of a beast. With Matchup Specific Ceiling, I try to think about specific factors that can reduce general ceiling in a specific game environment. For example, let’s start his general ceiling at 100 DKP. If he is in a massive pace down matchup, I lower this. If he is going against an amazing defender, I will lower this. If the rest of the team is healthy and will take usage from him, I will lower this. If he’s playing with nagging injuries, I will lower this. If the game has a low O/U, i lower it. If the game is expected to blow out, I lower it. So while we can still expect a completely random 100 DKP from Brow at any point, if the Pelicans roster is completely healthy and he was going against, let’s say, the Molasses Grizzlies who are 1) the Slowest Team in the NBA and 2) Playing Gasol at Center, who is one of the NBA’s top Defenders, I might say his Matchup Specific Ceiling in this case is closer to 75-80. Still a high number, but significantly less than what his General Ceiling could be if all the factors line up correctly (like a beautiful NBA syzygy). Just like we might think his median projection would go from 60 DKP to 52 DKP in a difficult matchup, I have found that factoring in a Matchup Specific Ceiling will help the decision making process. I will say, as well, this is not a function of range. I would say the general range of Brow against Memphis is 40-65DKP, but his Matchup Specific Ceiling (the absolute highest I could see him going in this specific matchup) is 75-80. By the by, since the start of the 2017 season, Brow has played Memphis 4 times and gotten 55.25, 57, 43.5 and 57 DKP.
I think using Matchup Specific Ceiling is a good way of analyzing specific matchups in terms of production likelihood. If Brow was going against, say, the Hawks and Mirotic was out, I would still keep his ceiling close enough to 100 that I know he is an a smash spot and then we just have factor in price and ownership. Let's say, in general, if there aren't any real mitigating factors, a player has a 5% chance of reaching close to their ceiling in any given game (it is much lower, but we are going to use this for the example). If Brow has a Matchup Specific Ceiling of 80 instead of 100 due to a difficult matchup and other factors, the 5% chance of him reaching his general ceiling is going to be significantly reduced to under 1%. So let's use Matchup Specific Ceiling to weigh Brow against.. let's say PG13- someone who has a ceiling of 85 or so, but costs 1500-2000 less as well. If we assume Brow in a bad matchup and PG13 in a good matchup (one where his Matchup Specific Ceiling mirrors his general ceiling)- I have found that in this circumstance, Brow will 100% of the time feature a raw projection that is higher than PG13. Even if PG13 is in a better spot. Even if PG13 has a legitimate shot of outscoring Brow half of the time if this were run 100 times. However, if we consider the Matchup Specific Ceiling, we see 2 things- One, The reduction in Brow's Matchup Specific Ceiling means that PG13 and him have functionally identical ceilings THAT DAY (or, if we take it to the extremes, PG13's can be higher). Two, the odds of PG13 hitting his General Ceiling is significantly higher than Brow's. Again, if you just look at raw points, you would think that Brow is going to outscore PG13 100% of the time, because 100% of the time he is projected to. But if, in a specific matchup, PG13 has a 5% chance of hitting his 85 DKP ceiling, and Brow has a >1% chance of hitting his Matchup Specific Ceiling of 80-85 DKP, it's PG13 that should have a projection advantage that remains unaccounted for.
I bring this up now because I think it’s extremely relevant for how I (and most people) think about the Warriors. What I would call a “lowered Matchup Specific Ceiling” for the Warriors players is also called “too many cooks.” You have seen plenty of analysts talk about how, if Curry is injured you should play Durant and Green, or vice versa in any number of combinations. That is because when you have the 4th, 12th, and 37th highest usage players in the NBA all starting for you, they are all going to eat into each other. USAGE AND PRODUCTION IN THE NBA ARE A ZERO SUM GAMEThere are only a finite number of possessions in a game. The more possessions you can take advantage of, the more DKP you can score (obviously) That is why pace is so important- the higher the pace, the more possessions everyone gets, and the more chances your players will get to score something. Again, though, each and every one of these possessions is a zero sum game. What this means is that, If someone else gets those points, I do not. There are X number of points that can get gained for every possession, and Y number of possessions you get in a game. There is no font from which Warriors players can draw DKP ad infinitum. There are no untimed innings where your team can score as many runs as the pitcher will allow. They are limited by, not only the quality of their own play, but by the quality of the other 3 (and soon to be 4) all stars around them. This means for every 3 that Klay makes, at most Curry, Durant, and Green can get points for 1 assist and there is one less potential possession for them to increase their scores. Every time Curry runs down the court and chucks a 3 from halfcourt, that is points that Durant, Klay, and Dray will never get. In this way, while a Curry or Durant may have GENERAL ceilings of 80-90 DKP, when everyone is healthy it dramatically reduces their matchup specific ceiling before even considering other game factors.
Matchup Specific Ceiling is something I think we all naturally consider when we look at a game, a player, an environment, and a price in deciding what we want. I think that by making it something we can consciously factor in, it may help the maths we are already doing and help us make better picks. Even if this is something that isn’t new, I hope this explains what I mean by Matchup Specific Ceiling when I use it now and in the future, and I hope it gives you a new way to think about your players.
Now we have a neat 10 game slate to look at, so let’s get down to business.
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order): - John “Paul” Wall and the Wizards - This is the first game I am looking at, so either the soft pricing from Xmas has carried over, or every wizard except for Beal is underpriced. Wall, who was 9800 3 games ago has fallen to 8600. Detroit is, by far, weakest against PG. Wall has the 19th highest usage rate in the NBA. He will be matched up with Reggie Jackson who is 80th out of 99 in DRPM for PGs. I say 80th out of 99, but the only starters worse than him are Wall himself, LaVine, Sexton, and Trae Young. Otto Porter has already been ruled out. Ariza is in the middle of “operation: run ariza into the ground” and his price just fell 200 to 5400. Markieff is getting run every day and he’s only 4500. He hits 25-30 DKP a lot. Even the punts have fallen, with bit players like Satoransky down to 3700. Not that he’s the strongest play, but he will be seeing enough backup minutes, and has enough usage, 3700 isn’t too hard to pay off.
- The Pistons - The Wizards are so, so bad at D. At pretty much every position. They don’t guard the 3 point line. The Pistons are in a really nice pace up spot. The O/U is over 220 (221) and the spread is only DET -5. While there are so many good spots on this slate, i wouldn’t recommend this, but it’s certainly possible that Blake and Drummond stacked with Wall could lock you in to a ton of points where other people will be spending up. I also want to point this out- Here is the pricing for the Pistons- Drummond is 9200, Blake is 9000, R Jax is 5400, Bullock is 4700, Johnson and Brown are 3500. That’s right, there are only 4 players above 3500. Even DK and Vegas expect most of the production to come from those 2 in this matchup
- Vucevic - I can already tell you the hardest decision you are going to have to make today is what Center(s) are you going to play. It might be foolish not to play 2 on DK. If you play sites like FD where you can only play 1 C, i really don’t envy you this evening. Ayton is a great rookie. I would be surprised if he wasn’t a perennial all-star in the future. But right now, he can’t even come close to hanging with Vuc. Vuc will play up to 37 minutes or so in close contests. On November 30, Vucevic helped the Magic blow these Suns out, he only needed 32 minutes to put up 25 real points on 11-20 shooting with 15 rebounds. He also had 1 block, which I think is closer to his floor in a matchup against this team with Booker healthy. His price was recently over 9k. 8900 is still a lot, but Vuc has a matchup specific ceiling of 75-85 DKP tonight and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he gets you a relatively effortless 60 DKP.
- Devin Booker - As much as I like Vuc, it should be noted before I start talking about Booker, this game has a concerning O/U of 209.5 between the teams 21st and 27th in pace. As great a spot as Booker is in, I would only really consider him if you are the type of player who likes to “run back” your other play. If you are going to play Vuc, I would get Booker in there. ORL is a decent defense. They are basically at or better than average at every position according to DvP. However, the numbers say that, if anything, they can be attacked at SG and SF, which tells us they are probably weak against the perimeter. Also, DJ Augustin is not a good defender. What this tells me is that, no matter what, Booker is going to be in a matchup they can let him take advantage of. If Melton is running point, which will be for a majority of his minutes, he is in the best position possible against this D. If he runs the point, and they let him run iso, ooh nelly. He is fairly priced at 8500 for someone that can put up 50 DKP in this matchup if the game stays close. Again, I doubt I will be on him but, if i DO wind up on Vuc, I will also wind up here and won’t feel badly about it at all.
- Kemba/Cody ZelleD’Angelo Russell/Joe Harris - I have told the story of why I am a Nets fan. If you sat me down a year ago and said, “bathrobe.. I want you to picture a game where the Nets play the Hornets in the future. The Hornets have one of the best PGs in the game, with top 10 usage. The Hornets are also playing at the 14th highest pace in the game. The game total is 221 and the Nets are projected to win by 2. How far in the future are you?” I would have said, maybe, 2021? If we were lucky? And yet, here we sit, on Boxing Day of 2018 in this exact situation. On the 15th, Kemba was up to 9300. That game blew out and he only played 25 min, causing his price to fall to 8400 immediately. It still hasn’t sufficiently rebounded and still sits at 8400 a week later. This game is supposed to stay close, and, if it does, it will be on the back of Kemba and, since they are playing the Nets, whoever is at Center. In that circumstance, the play is Cody Zeller (if you think this game blows out, pivot down to Hernangomez). People who only check game logs will see Zeller, who was priced 5300 one week ago, has shit the bed recently, with 8.75, 15, and 18.5 DKP performances. But 2 of those games were over early enough, Zeller only got 20 and 21 minutes (and played against people who can actually defend the C position). The other also devolved into a blowout and Zeller missed out on minutes that may have pushed him over 5x value. The game before that ALSO blew out, but it was against the pathetic C defense of the Lakers. Zeller got only 20 minutes, but provided 26.75 DKP. And the last close game the Hornets played, on 12/14 against the Knicks, Zeller put up 48.25 DKP in 37 minutes. Seriously, I can’t stress this enough, the first thing you should do on any slate is see if the Nets are playing and, if they are, check the Center they will be going against and his price and then just lock him in anyway. The league average is 53.3 DK PPG to the Center position. The only 2 teams allowing over 60 are the Suns at 62.6 (Hello Vuc) and the Nets at 64.3. C’mon. Why am I still pretending there is anyone who disagrees with me here! On the other side of the ball, The Hornets have been weakest against Guards and Wing players, meaning Russell, who is 11th in the NBA in usage, stands out at 7500. Additionally, while I expect people will be over Kurucs more than Harris, due to Kurucs recent performance, his cheaper price point and his better OPRK according to DK, I think taking 3s will be crucial to a winning strategy, and, especially with Crabbe out, Harris is the one they give that responsibility to. Another player that can give you 25-30 real points today at under 5k.
- Jrue - This game features a healthy 228.5 total and a spread of DAL -2.5. Dallas is, BY FAR, weakest against guards, and, while Brow is a freak, nearly 12k for someone who will be seeing the fantastic D of Jordan is someone I will look to pivot from. Jrue was over 9000 recently and, in this game environment, he should produce like someone priced over 9000. Mirotic being out also helps add to Jrue’s usage/matchup specific ceiling. With everything up in the air, we may not know who we can play on the Dallas side of the ball, but if you are looking to take advantage of this game, I think Jrue will be your best bet among the big 3 of Randle, Brow and Jrue. I would also posit he will be the least owned.
- Rudy Gay - The position you can attack the Nuggets at the most efficiently is PF, where Rudy Gay plays a majority of his minutes. At 5900, given his recent production in limited minutes (due to blow out), Gay is a slam dunk tonight. While the Spurs tend to always win or lose by blow out, this game is projected to get to a decent-but-not-great 214, and stay close with SAS -3. I would wager that some of that is on the back of extra production out of Gay (though DeRozan is also in a fine spot if you want to stack this game).
- Kings vs Clippers - Fun Fact- the Kings are the only team out of all 20 that are playing in a back-to-back, traveling back home after this game. Another fun fact- The Kings are 2nd in pace and the Clippers are 9th. A 3rd fun fact- this game is projected for the most points on the slate at 239 with a close enough spread of LAC -5.5. A 4th fun fact- there is not a single starter in this game that is in the top 10 of their position in DRPM. A 5th fun fact- there are no starters in the top 50 in usage in this game. The only player getting decent minutes in the top 50 is Lou Williams who has raised his usage ranking from 6th to 4th since Friday. A 6th fun fact - finally, finally, finally we have a late night hammer game (one that starts 2 hours after the 8th and 9th start at 830) that doesn’t have a bunch of injury news we have to wait for. You know how many people are Questionable, Probable, or Doubtful?? 0. I think that this game will have pretty high ownership, but I think it’s not going to be as high as it should be, either. I just can’t imagine people being OK with paying 8200 for Fox or 7200 for Hield or 6600 for LouWill coming off the bench. There are SO MANY center options, not nearly enough people will be on WCS at only 6500. And after his last dud, plenty of folks will be hesitant to play Montrezl at only 5700. Again, this game is a hair away from an insane total of 240. There are going to be a ton of points put up by a bunch of people. This is not the matchup to fade any of them. Given how weak the Clippers are against PG, and how few people I think will play him at that price, I will have a hard time getting off Fox tomorrow.
Situations to avoid (in no particular order): - Pacers - When I was doing my notes I saw this game, saw the Hawks, and expected to love it. But digging in more (and looking at pricing), I think I will wind up staying away. No one with any credibility will argue there is someone you can’t play against the Hawks. The matchup is so good, with Atlanta being first in pace, and near the bottom in defense, that anyone has a legit chance of going off. This makes me worry about not only the risk of a blowout, but the ability of the Pacers to slow this game down. This is what I imagine happening- Indiana Player takes a shot with 2 seconds left on the shot clock. The Hawks Centers, who can’t hang with Turner when they are all healthy, are all banged up. So if the Pacers player misses, Turner has a good shot at the offensive rebound. He throws it out to Collison or Oladipo and the process repeats. On the other side, the actual decent Pacers D will cause the Hawks to miss shots that, again, Turner will have an easier chance at getting. This will cause the game both to have a low total, a lower number of possessions, but also blow out. If Oladipo wasn’t 8700 and Turner wasn’t 8000 I would be interested, but I see far too many ways for this game to go pear-shaped to take a risk here, not with so many better game environments out there.
- Raptors vs. Heat - It is now 12:06am on Boxing Day. The O/U for this game and the Wolves game haven’t come out yet. We know we are waiting for word on Rose before the O/U comes out for the Wolves, but, as far as I know, we are not waiting on any injury news, no one is questionable that carries major weight, and there are no extenuating circumstances that would create hesitation in Vegas. Still, I would expect this to be a defensively minded, low scoring, slow paced game for which there is no one priced at enough of a value that I consider them viable. Ibaka has been called Probable already, and the only news on Kawhi is that he will start playing back-to-backs in January. This isn’t a back-to-back for Toronto either.
- Cavs v. Grizzlies - THE PROJECTED TOTAL IS 196.5 WITH A SPREAD OF MEMPHIS -10.5 I will make this simple, don’t play a god damn thing from this game.
- Nugs vs Spurs - Apart from Gay, I just don’t like this game between the 25th and 26th paced teams, at prices that are completely fair for everyone. I would be all over this game if everyone was 1000 cheaper, but, as it is, everyone is too fairly priced for this game environment.
Situations to monitor: - Hawks - As I said before, I don’t really have much interest in the IND/ATL game. However, there are a couple of things we have to consider. First, injuries- Lin is Probable, Prince is still Out, Collins is Questionable, Spellman is Out, Dedmon is Probable, Len is Questionable, and Plumlee is Out. That’s a lot of value that could open up. Second, on the Hawks side, if Collins is out, the most expensive player on their entire roster is Trae Young at 5900. It’s not a great spot, but every single one of the Hawks can be in the conversation for punt plays here. If they somehow manage to make this game close, those points are going to come from somewhere, and that somewhere is INSANELY underpriced. Again, this isn’t a place I see myself prioritizing, but I would certainly not complain if I fell into a Bazemore or Huerter if Lin manages to miss. Or Dedmon if he is the only healthy big for the game. He will probably get eaten up by Turner. Or the Hawks can just play small all game, hurting both Dedmon and Turner’s minutes. But he has a legit shot at more than 30 minutes at only 5200 as the only healthy body. Make sure to pay attention to the developments throughout the day to see what value opens up and what it means for ownership and this game’s spread.
- Wolves/Bulls - The 2nd game with no current O/U, we are waiting on the 2 questionable tags for Derrick Rose and, somehow, Zach LaVine. I imagine if LaVine is in, he will be limited which would remove all consideration from any guards on this team. Rose is Questionable, but got a practice in with the team on Monday. If he is healthy and not limited, I will go here for 6800, even in what may turn out to be a blowout. What can’t be argued is that, regardless of Rose’s status, KAT is also one of the best plays on the slate. Chicago is weakest against C, KAT is 44th in usage in the NBA, and Chicago has no one that can hang with KAT. While 9400 is a lot, again, there are very few spots better for a player on this slate. I imagine the great options, as well as the threat of blowout, will suppress ownership on KAT. if this game stays close, we could see him approach his ceiling, especially if Rose is limited or out altogether. On the other side, if LaVine is out, Markkanen and Dunn are expensive enough people won’t play them, but too cheap for their production. Also, with Portis out, Robin Lopez has been getting into the 20s in minutes. At 3100, he may be one of the best punts on the slate (especially if this game projects to blow out)
- Mavs - In a 228.5 total game where the Mavs are projected to win by -2.5, we are going to have to find some pieces from here. Right now, Smith, Barea, and Matthews are Questionable. If all 3 are out or only Barea plays (I assume Barea will play, and the other two are truly up in the air), Doncic, who’s price has risen to a healthy 8300, will be dramatically underowned for the production he will put up. Again. 228.5 total. 8300 is a lot. And it’d still probably be 1000 too cheap for a matchup against the Pelicans. Basically, everything is going to come down to the news tomorrow. We have to find out who is in, who is out, who is limited, who isn’t and then get what we can out of this game, cause odds are we will need it.
Alright! With that, my Boxing Day article has drawn to a close. I hope you are more Mike Tyson today than Glass Joe.
Let’s all get rich today!
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Kawhi's choice of Clippers over Lakers: Most Gutsy, I-Am-The-Alpha Decision in NBA History?
- First reigning FMVP to leave his team ever.
- He could have created an overwhelming title favorite in the most successful/iconic NBA franchise since 1980, and he would have received a tiny fraction criticism of LeBron/Durant.
- He has chronic knee issues and have to hold back in the regular season, yet still chose his own team in the West knowing Paul George will most likely miss start of the season, instead of staying in the East.
Yet despite all of this, he clearly bought Game of Zones S6E8's Patrick Beverley pitch: Steve Ballmer's Microsoft money and Jerry West the championship architect will almost certainly get one more upgrade to the roster if everyone look healthy by all-star break. The Clippers is a hungry pack of dogs waiting for their alpha. Kawhi pitched to get his own Pippen and built the closest thing to Jordan/Pippen in 2020, in LA against the fan-favorite Lakers, and directly challenging King LeBron's throne in his own city after declining an alliance! He LITERALLY declared war against the best player of our generation in an era where alliance is far more common!
I don't remember anything even close to this in NBA history, obviously this can all backfire if health issues derail this team, if they fail to capture a ring next two seasons. On paper, both Vegas odds and my eye test says LeBron/AD is a touch better duo. Kawhi did not have a good finals either against the depleted warriors. He didn't look nearly as dominant as LeBron in any of the Cavs/Warriors series. If he fails, people will just say he overestimated himself after a fluke season.
But what if he is successful? What if the robot is cold blooded and calculated everything correctly? He made a very strange comment about he does not play for fans. From pure eye test and 1v1 stand point, I don't think Duncan could beat Shaq, heck he didn't destroy Malone/KG/Dirk's of the world with raw head-to-head stats either. The same way Kawhi doesn't fill up the stat sheet like LeBron, and with the exception of first half 2017 finals, Kawhi can't really beat Durant 1v1. But as the true heir to Duncan, he does everything required to win. He plays defense against the best player on the other team, he gives his teammate calmness and confidence, carries them when he has no choice (game 7 vs Sixers, game 3 vs Bucks), let them shine when they finally put it together. Duncan turned very low picks in ParkeGinobili into all stars. Kawhi turned Raptors into champions. There is something special about these two you can't really quantify with stats, otherwise Duncan would be just a 20/10 guy.
Kawhi has the highest winning percentage in NBA history. He turned first round exist Spurs into western finals, finals and championship in his first three seasons. He took Spurs to another conference finals the same season Duncan retired. He matched peak LeBron game score three straight games in 2014 finals to stop the Heat three-peat after Spurs lost home court!
He made this much more difficult, but if he rings one of the next two seasons, he will truly be, the King Slayer.
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Predictive Seeding for Each Conference
With at most 7 games left for most teams an accurate seeding is able to be produced right now using Vegas Odds and an injury return calendar. This also takes into account the end of season ‘rest’ games that playoff teams take at the end of the season as well as teams actively tanking. This is what it is at right now:
West: 1. z - Houston Rockets (67-15) 2. Golden State Warriors (59-23) 3. Portland Trail Blazers (52-30) 4. Minnesota Timberwolves (48-34) 5. Oklahoma City Thunder (48-34) 6. New Orleans Pelicans (47-35) 7. San Antonio Spurs (47-35) 8. Utah Jazz (46-36) ——————————— 9. Los Angeles Clippers (45-37) 10. Denver Nuggets (43-39) 11. Los Angeles Lakers (34-48) 12. Sacramento Kings (25-57) 13. Dallas Mavericks (24-58) 14. Memphis Grizzlies (23-59) 15. Phoenix Suns (20-62)
First Round Matchups Include...
(1) HOU vs (8) UTA (4) MIN vs (5) OKC (3) POR vs (6) NOP (2) GSW vs (7) SAS
East: 1. z - Toronto Raptors (60-22) 2. Boston Celtics (55-27) 3. Philadelphia 76ers (51-31) 4. Cleveland Cavaliers (50-32) 5. Indiana Pacers (47-35) 6. Miami Heat (46-36) 7. Milwaukee Bucks (46-36) 8. Washington Wizards (45-37) ——————————— 9. Detroit Pistons (37-45) 10. Charolette Hornets (36-46) 11. New York Knicks (28-54) 12. Brooklyn Nets (27-55) 13. Chicago Bulls (27-55) 14. Orlando Magic (25-57) 15. Atlanta Hawks (22-60)
First Round Matchups Include:
(1) TOR vs (8) WAS (4) CLE vs (5) IND (3) PHI vs (6) MIA (2) BOS vs (7) MIL
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Tank Watch: March 17th, 2018
Happy St. Patrick's Day! Yesterday we got really close to an amazing day, but had to settle for a decent one. Nets and Mavericks got really really close to some huge upsets, but ended up losing their late leads. Kings were able to hold on to theirs though to beat the Warriors.
Today there are 11 games playing, with almost all of them impacting our draft picks in a big way. We play a struggling Cavs team we need a win against. Knicks have a winnable game against the Hornets. Mavs play the Nets so we gain a crucial game there as long as we lose. Also the Pelicans start their streak of 5 games in 6 days today against the Rockets, and a lot of other teams chasing the Pels play today.
Yesterday's Results Celtics(46-22) 92
Magic (21-48) 83
Magic are pretty much out of reach for the Bulls unless they pull a crazy winning streak for the last few weeks.
Bad for tank Nets (21-47) 116
76ers(37-30) 120
Nets had a few late leads that they couldn't hold and end up losing again. They played well though, they need to keep playing consistently good if we're going to pass them
Bad for tank Mavericks(22-46) 115
Raptors (51-17) 122
Mavericks took one of the best teams in the league to OT, and really should have won it. Mavs lead the ENTIRE SECOND HALF until the Raptors tied it to go to overtime, and then the Mavericks took an early overtime lead. They managed to throw it all away though and took a loss.
Bad for tank Clippers (37-30) 113
Thunder (41-29) 121
Clippers keep looking like they will take the playoff spot and run with it, but can never hold it for too long. They fall back a little further from the Pelicans, but the Thunder take a bigger lead on the Pelicans so thats good.
Neutral for Pelicans pick Kings (22-47)
Warriors(52-16)
Spread: Warriors -8.5
Warriors were injured as hell but the Kings still get a huge upset to win this one. If they keep up this good play they might be the most likely team for us to pass.
Good for tank Heat (36-33) 92
Lakers(31-37) 91
Doesn't really affect us one way or the other.
No effect on either pick Today's Games Hawks (20-49) vs Bucks (36-32)
Spread: Bucks -11.0
No real chance the Bulls can still catch the Hawks but the Bucks don't really affect us either so root for the unlikely chance of a 3+ game Hawks winning streak.
Go Hawks! Pacers (40-29) vs Wizards (39-30)
Spread: No line yet
Wizards are 0.5 games behind the Pelicans, Pacers are 0.5 games ahead of them. Either way if the Pelicans are in the playoffs we want both teams ahead of them so pick whoever you want in this one.
Toss up, take your pick Rockets (54-14) vs Pelicans (39-29)
Spread: Rockets -7.0
Nice tough matchup to start the hard part of the schedule for the Pelicans. A loss for them here would be a great start to what is hopefully 3-4 losses in a week.
Go Rockets! Mavericks (22-47) vs Nets (21-48)
Spread: Nets -1.0
Whoever you think the Bulls have a better chance of passing is who you should be rooting for in this one. Mavericks are a full game closer to us, but the Nets are not actively tanking and we also have 2 more games against them. I'm honestly pretty split here, but I think I'll root Mavs with them being a little closer. Feel free to root either way though.
Toss up, take your pick Hornets (30-39) vs Knicks (24-45)
Spread: Hornets -6.5
Winnable game for the Knicks, but they are really bad lately so it'll be tough. We really desperately need a few wins out of them so we can at least get the 8th spot back.
Go Knicks! Cavaliers (39-29) vs Bulls (24-44)
Spread: No line yet
I haven't seen the official report yet (writing this yesterday and won't be able to update things today) but the last I saw the Bulls are going to be without a lot of our good players for this game, and next game too if I had to guess. If we actually lose out, we're probably in pretty good position, but we've shown that even without some players we're too good for that. A loss here would at least gain a game on the Mavs or Nets though so that's good.
Go Cavaliers! Nuggets (38-31) vs Grizzlies (18-50)
Spread: No line yet
Grizzlies being horrible can finally help us here. Nuggets are the closest team that is out of the playoffs that can pass the Pelicans. Just 1.5 games back and they could easily be just 0.5 games back at the end of the night.
Go Nuggets! Timberwolves (40-29) vs Spurs (39-30)
Spread: Spurs -4.0
Battle of the two teams that game away their playoff security by being bad for a while. Take your pick with this one, Spurs are 0.5 games behind the Pelicans and the Wolves are 0.5 games ahead. Either way this game goes, both teams need to play well after it so they can stay in the playoffs and kick the Pelicans out.
Toss up, take your pick Kings (23-47) vs Jazz (39-30)
Spread: Jazz -1.0
I'm not seeing any reason in the game preview why the spread is so low in this one. Vegas must really like the Kings in this one, which is good for us. Kings are 5-4 in their last 9, and look good enough for us to pass them (2 games back) if we can just manage to play bad enough. Jazz win would be good too though with them just 0.5 back of the Pelicans.
Go Kings! Warriors (52-17) vs Suns (19-51)
Spread: No line yet
No way we catch the Suns unless they win like 10 of their last 12, so unless you're an even bigger optimist than me, this game has no effect on us.
Take your pick, neither team affects us Pistons (30-38) vs Trail Blazers (42-26)
Spread: Trail Blazers -8.5
Trail Blazers are on an 11 game winning streak that most likely continues tonight. They are now 3 games ahead of the Pelicans, so I don't see the Pelicans catching them anymore, but some more insurance is always nice when the other team is just the Pistons.
Go Trail Blazers! Lottery Standings:
http://www.tankathon.com Odds for each lottery spot:
http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds - Bulls pick is currently at 9 and we are 6 games back of the top spot
- Bulls are 0.5 games behind the Knicks for the 8th spot, 2 games behind the Kings for the 7th spot, and 2.5 games back of the Mavericks for the 6th spot
- Pelicans are tied for the 21st spot in the draft, 1.5 games from slipping out of the playoffs and 3 games back of the Trail Blazers for the 26th spot.
submitted by Pepsuber188 to chicagobulls [link] [comments]
/r/NBA 2017 Southeast Division Breakdown: Atlanta Hawks
Team Name: Atlanta Hawks
Subreddit: /AtlantaHawks Subreddit Motto: We aren't tanking.
Arena: Phillips Arena
Average Attendance (Rank): 15,958 (26)
Division: Southeast
Record: 43-39
Playoff Record: 2-4 (Lost in 1st round to the Washington Wizards)
Owner, Front Office and Coaching
A section about the Owner, FO and the Coaching. Include anybody/anything you deem important - Owner: Tony Ressler
- General Manager: Travis Schlenk
- Coach: Mike Budenholzer
The Hawks shook up their front office over the off-season. Mike Budenholzer and Wes Wilcox "resigned" from their respective roles as President of Basketball Operations and General Manager (Budenholzer remains the team's head coach). Travis Schlenk, former Assistant GM of the Warriors, was hired as the Head of Basketball Operations and General Manager.
2016-2017
2016-17 Lineup | PPG | TS% | Position | State with the Team |
Paul Millsap | 18.1 | .542 | PF | Left in FA (Nuggets - 3/$60M) |
Dennis Schröder | 17.9 | .533 | PG | Signed until 2021 for $15.5M/yr |
Tim Hardaway Jr | 14.5 | .568 | SG | Left in FA (Knicks - 4/$71M) |
Dwight Howard | 13.5 | .627 | C | Traded to Hornets |
Ersan Ilyasova | 13.1 | .530 | PF | Re-signed for 1/$6M |
Kent Bazemore | 11 | .504 | SG | Signed until 2020 for ~$18M/yr |
Thabo Sefolosha | 7.2 | .519 | SF | Left in FA (Jazz - 2/$10.5M) |
Mike Muscala | 6.2 | .596 | C | Re-signed for 2/$10M (2nd yr PO) |
Taurean Prince | 5.7 | .513 | SF | Signed until 2020 (rookie scale) |
Malcolm Delaney | 5.4 | .456 | PG | Signed until 2018 for $2.5M/yr |
Mike Dunleavy | 5.2 | .597 | SF | Free Agent |
Kris Humphries | 4.6 | .514 | PF | Free Agent |
Jose Calderon | 3.7 | .504 | PG | Left in FA (Cavaliers - 1yr min) |
DeAndre' Bembry | 2.7 | .481 | SF | Signed until 2020 (rookie scale) |
Ryan Kelly | 1.6 | .408 | PF | Left in FA (Spain) |
Note: Bold are playoff starters General Team Stats | Rank | Stat |
PTS/Game | 22 | 103.2 |
Pts Allowed | 10 | 104.0 |
Differential | 19 | -0.8 |
3PA/Game | 16 | 26.1 |
3P% | 23 | 34.1 |
Rebound/Game | 9 | 44.3 |
Assists/Game | 10 | 23.6 |
Advanced | Rank | Stat |
Ortg | 27 | 104.9 |
Drtg | 4 | 105.7 |
Pace | 11 | 97.4 |
2016-2017 Regular Season Recap
The 2016-17 Hawks season was full of ups-and-downs, including a few game winners and big wins over the league's top teams but also a couple of long losing streaks. The Hawks finished with a 43-39 record but it was more interesting than the typical 43 win season (at least for Hawks fans).
- The Hawks started the season going 9-2 in the first 3 weeks of the season. Dwight Howard seemed to fit in quickly, putting up some big performances in that stretch including 20/15 in his first game against the Rockets, 31/11 against the Lakers and 7/17 against the Cavs while completely neutralizing Tristan Thompson as the Hawks beat the Cavs for the first time in 11 games. Dennis Schroder got off to a solid start in his first season as starting PG giving an early indication that the team had made the right decision in trading Jeff Teague to give him that role.
- After winning 9 of their first 11 games, the Hawks proceeded to lose 10 of their next 11 games. Schroder had his worst game of the season, scoring only 1 point in 22 minutes against the Knicks. Paul Millsap was injured for the last 4 games of this stretch which didn't help matters. After a 36 point loss to the Pistons followed by a 44 point loss to the Raptors, the Hawks fell out of the top 8 seeds and it looked like the season was falling off the rails.
- Millsap's return to the lineup in the first week of December helped to stabilize the Hawks' season a bit. They ended their rut with back-to-back wins against the Heat and Bucks (a game which the Hawks trailed by 20 at halftime). For the next couple of weeks, the team alternated wins and losses. After their loss to the Wolves on December 26, the Hawks had a 15-16 record and the 7th seed in the East.
- At this point it seemed like the Hawks would finally tank after 9 straight years of making the playoffs. Reports came out that they were shopping Paul Millsap, Kyle Korver, Thabo Sefolosha and any other veterans on expiring contracts. However, the Hawks chose this moment to go on an 8 game winning streak, their longest of the season. Kyle Korver was traded to the Cavs in the middle of this stretch before a game against the Pelicans. Despite having been traded, Korver stayed on the Hawks' bench during the game and cheered the team. A couple of days later, when the winning streak hit 7, reports came out that the Hawks had taken Millsap off the trade block. The Hawks winning streak finally came to an end in a game against the Celtics where Isaiah Thomas hit a last second game-winner.
- After their winning streak ended, the Hawks reverted to playing around .500 for the next month until the all-star break. They beat the Knicks 142-139 in a 4OT thriller in which Paul Millsap played 60(!) minutes. This stretch also included a game where the Hawks came back from 10 points down with 3 minutes left to win against the Bulls. The Hawks also traded for Ersan Ilyasova who would be a part of some of the Hawks' best lineups down the stretch of the season.
- The Hawks had a 32-24 record and were the 5th seed at the all-star break. However, they went 7-14 over the next 5 weeks including a 7 game losing streak, most of it with Millsap injured. The Hawks were 39-38 and the 7th seed with 5 games left in the season.
- With the Hawks next 3 games being BOS, @CLE, CLE, there was a good chance that the Hawks might miss out on the playoffs. Instead the Hawks went on arguably the most incredible 3-game run of any team last season. First they beat the then 2nd seed Celtics 124-117 in a game dominated by Dwight Howard before he was ejected in the 3rd quarter. The very next night, they went to Cleveland to play the Cavs who were coming off a comprehensive victory over the Celtics. The Hawks decided to bench all 5 starters and yet still beat the full strength Cavs 114-100 despite having some players on the floor whom Cavs announcer Austin Carr could not even name. A couple nights later, the now full strength Hawks beat the Cavs again, coming back from a 26 point 4th quarter deficit to pull out the win in OT.
- Those 3 unlikely wins helped the Hawks finish with a 43-39 record and the 5th seed in the East.
Playoffs
Round 1 - Lost to Washington Wizards, 2-4
The Hawks lost the first two games, won the next two, before losing the next two games to go down in 6 games against the Wizards. While the Wizards were the better team, the Hawks did have double digit leads in every single game in the series and the series could've gone the other way had the Hawks performed better in crunch time.
John Wall was the best player in the series, putting up 29/10 on great efficiency and showing why he's one of the best transition players in the league. Dennis Schroder exceeded expectations on both offense and defense and he actually outplayed Paul Millsap and was the Hawks' best player in the series.
Despite Wall's brilliance, where the Hawks really lost the series was the Hardaway/Howard vs Beal/Gortat match-up. Both Hardaway and Howard were comprehensively outplayed by their counterparts and every time the Wizards ran a Beal/Gortat pick-and-roll, it was a complete disaster on defense. Hardaway's inability to fight through any screens coupled with Howard's immobility and reluctance to leave the paint allowed Beal to put up 26 PPG and costed the Hawks the series.
2017 Draft | Position | Round | Pick | College or Country |
John Collins | PF | 1 | 19 | Wake Forest University |
Tyler Dorsey | SG | 2 | 41 | University of Oregon |
Alpha Kaba | PF | 2 | 60 | France |
2017-18 Additions | Position | Previously Played Team, Aquistion Details | Remaining Contract |
Dewayne Dedmon | C | San Antonio Spurs, Free Agent Signing | 2y$12.3M (2nd yr PO) |
Miles Plumlee | C | Charlotte Hornets, Trade | 3y$37.5M |
Marco Belinelli | SG | Charlotte Hornets, Trade | 1y$6M |
Luke Babbit | SF | Miami Heat, Free Agent Signing | 1ymin |
Nicholas Brussino | SF | Dallas Mavericks, Claimed off waivers | 1ymin |
Quinn Cook | PG | New Orleans Pelicans, Free Agent Signing | 1ymin |
Tyler Cavanaugh | PF | Undrafted Free Agent Signing | 1ymin |
2017 Offseason
Letting Paul Millsap Walk
For the second consecutive offseason, the Hawks lost an all-star big man in unrestricted free agency. After shopping Millsap on the trade market in the 2016 offseason and the 2017 trade deadline and initially indicating that their main offseason priority was to re-sign him, the Hawks let him walk to the Nuggets for a rather reasonable 3y$60M contract (3rd year team option). Millsap later said that the Hawks did not even make him a contract offer.
Dwight Howard trade
This was Travis Schlenk's first move as the team's GM and the first indication that the team had embraced rebuilding. In one of the more puzzling trades of the offseason, the Hawks traded Howard and the 31st pick in the 2017 draft for Marco Belinelli, Miles Plumlee and the 41st pick in the 2017 draft. It was one of the rare trades where you could make a case that the team got worse players, took on worse salary and also got a worse draft pick out of the exchange. Apparently the front office really wanted Howard out of Atlanta but one could put together a decent argument that the team would've been better off cutting/buying-out Howard rather than making this trade and taking on the albatross that is Miles Plumlee for another 3 seasons
Letting Tim Hardaway Jr go to the Knicks in restricted free agency
The Hawks were reportedly hoping to sign THJ to a contract in the neighbourhood of 4y$45M. However, the Knicks offered him a 4y$71M contract and also threw in a 15% trade kicker and final year player option. Apparently, the Knicks really wanted Hardaway and decided to overpay to make sure the Hawks did not match. The Hawks wisely decided not to match and THJ will now return to the team that traded him away two seasons ago.
Minor Transactions
Dewayne Dedmon was signed to replace Dwight. Coach Bud prefers to have a spaced floor with bigs who can shoot and this was reflected in the re-signing of Mike Muscala and Ersan Ilyasova as well as the signing of Luke Babbit from the Heat. Quinn Cook and Nicholas Brussino were signed on 1ymin deals as end of the roster depth.
2017-2018 Season Preview
Barring a Giannis-esque breakout from Schroder, the Hawks will almost certainly miss the playoffs for the first time since the 2006-07 season.
On offense, the team will be heavily reliant on Schroder to score and create for others. He led the team with a 27.6 USG% last year and now that Millsap (24.2 USG%) and Hardaway (22.1 USG%) are gone, Schroder's USG% will probably have to climb above 30% and there's a chance he's top 10 in the league in that category.
How well the offense does will depend more on what Mike Budenholzer is able to do with the limited talent available to him. In the past, he's been able to put together respectable offenses where the whole is more than the sum of the parts. However, in the past, Coach Bud's system has been predicated on ball movement and a spaced floor and the two versatile bigs, Horford and Millsap, who could shoot and pass were a big part of that. Now that neither of them are on the team anymore, Bud will have to modify his system to accomodate the new players at those positions. Dedmon is a good roll man so we might see a bunch of Schroder-Dedmon P&Rs this season. The Hawks are certain to be a bottom tier offensive team this season and if they manage to somehow avoid being in bottom 5 teams in offense, it'll be quite the accomplishment.
If the Hawks are to exceed expectations this season, it's more likely they do so on the defensive end. They had the 4th best defense last year but Millsap was a huge part of that and now he's gone. The defense at the guard spots will likely be well below average, especially given Schroder's increased role on offense which will further lessen his defensive effort. At the center spot, they've replaced Howard with Dedmon and while Dedmon may not have the defensive reputation of Howard, he's much more mobile and better suited to the modern game on that end.
However, the team hasn't made any moves to replace Millsap's defense from the PF spot as most of his minutes will be filled by Ersan Ilyasova, Luke Babbit and John Collins, all of whom are below average, at best, defenders. There is some defensive upside at the 3 though; the two second-year players Taurean Prince and DeAndre' Bembry both showed promise on the defensive end last season and the Hawks will hope that they take steps forward in that area. On paper, this looks like a league average defense, but if Budenholzer gets the players to buy in and compete hard on defense, I could see them sneaking into the top 10.
Crowdsourced predictions from /AtlantaHawks
The Vegas oveunder line is at 25.5 wins which is the second lowest of any team (only the Bulls are lower). However, I think Coach Bud will get the team to beat that mark. The team has defended at a high level ever since he became the coach and he deserves a good chunk of the credit for that. I predict they finish 12th in defense and 98th in offense with a 30-52 record.
-widesheep
38-44. 8th Seed
One reason, Coach Bud. Coach Bud has proven that the whole is more important than the sum of its parts. He took a group of misfits and turned them into a 60 win team after being the 8 seed the previous year before. He and his staff might be the best in the NBA at developing players. So many free agents have gotten their first real taste of playtime here and have gone on to not produce when leaving. He turned DeMarre into capable starter and got THJ a 4y$71mil contract. Needless to say, coach Bud has always been able to find a way to unlock player potential by putting them in the right situation on the court.
John Collins will make the All-Rookie team.
Dennis will get his first All-Star selection.
-Wong-A-Donger
Vegas has us at 25.5 wins, which I think is a fair and accurate ballpark of where we finish (I would estimate 27-28 wins).
Plain and simple we have a roster bereft of talent. Dennis Schroeder is the only established legitimate NBA starter; behind that we have a slew of NBA rotation guys (Bazemore, Ilyasova, Dedmon, Muscala, Belinelli) or young and unproven mid-level talent (Prince, Collins, Bembry). There is a woeful lack of shot creation ability or premier shooting. We were a bottom 5 offensive team last season, and we unquestionably got worse on that end with the departures of Millsap, Dwight, and THJ.
This team may be good, even great in 3-4 seasons after our existing players have had to develop and we add on draft picks and free agents. But this season? Anyone expecting over 30 wins is deluding themselves.
-azuresou1
32-50
-luhg89
we were hot ass on offense without millsap. I think the adjustment to losing him + THJ is going to really hamper us offensively. Like we could reasonably be the worst offensive team in the league. I really do just hope we trade away all the cheap, short contracts we have (minus Muscala) for some assets and commit to playing our young guys. This is looking like the best shot we've had at a top 3 draft pick in quite some time, we should actually commit to getting it.
-custom-concern
Roster breakdown:
(Some of these run a bit long but I tried to focus more on players who are part of the Hawks' long term future)
Starters
Dennis Schroder - PG
Schroder is by far the best offensive player on this team and with the departures of Millsap and Hardaway Jr, Schroder is the only player left on the team who can create his own offense. Schroder was excellent in the playoffs, and while he wasn't quite at the level of John Wall, he put up 25/8 on 58% TS% and was the Hawks' best player in the series. His playoff defense was also somewhat of a revelation as he was often criticized for a lack of defensive effort during the regular season. While he didn't completely stop Wall, he was able to at least slow him down a bit in half-court settings (Wall did wreck the Hawks in transition though I'd put more of the blame for that on the bigs' inability to get back in transition).
In the regular season, Schroder managed to improve his efficiency across the board while also playing around 10MPG more than the previous season. His speed and acceleration allow him to consistently get by the first line of defense and he also became more willing to take a pull-up 3 when teams went under the pick-and-roll.
However, despite his physical tools and improvements in the past couple of seasons, he still has some flaws in his game that he will have to address if he wants to enter the upper tiers of point guards in the league. His finishing around the rim and ability to draw fouls at the rim are well below average, especially for a player whose main offensive skill is his ability to get to the rim. His shooting has improved a lot but he still needs quicken his release and become a more consistent shooter if he wants to make teams pay when they go under on the P&R. And while he can be a good defender when he's engaged on that end, the offensive load he had to take on last season affected his defensive effort and that load is going to be even larger this season.
Despite his flaws, he remains a promising player (he just turned 24) and how quickly the Hawks are able to turn around this rebuild will greatly depend on whether or not Schroder can take his game to another level.
Kent Bazemore - SG
Like Schroder, Bazemore was also re-signed to a 4y$70M last offseason with reports coming out that he actually took a discount to stay with the Hawks. Unlike the Schroder contract, however, the Hawks definitely wish they hadn't given Bazemore his contract. Bazemore took a significant step back last year, both offensively and defensively. His TS% dropped from a league average 55.1% in 2015-16 to a terrible 50.1% last year.
With the departure of Teague, the Hawks needed more shot creation on the team and the hope was that Bazemore would be able to be a reliable secondary ball-handler. However, he was miserable with the ball in his hands, often turning the ball over or taking terrible shots at the rim. Tim Hardaway Jr became the player that the Hawks hoped Bazemore would be, at least on offense, and he replaced Bazemore in the starting lineup in the second half of the season as well as the playoffs. Now that Hardaway is no longer on the team, Bazemore will presumably be reinserted into the starting lineup and the Hawks will once again look to him to be a secondary shot creator.
Taurean Prince - SF
Prince was drafted with the 12th pick (acquired in the Jeff Teague trade) in last year's draft. Like most rookies, he didn't get much playing time at the start of the season and was disappointing in the few minutes he got. He was sent to the D-League for a week in December. The Kyle Korver trade and an injury to Thabo Sefolosha opened up a spot for him in the rotation and after impressing in February and March in a bench role, he was moved into the starting lineup for the last 10 days of the season as well as the playoffs. That proved to be a great decision as he put up 11PPG in the playoffs on good efficiency while also playing solid defense on Otto Porter.
His game is a perfect fit for the modern NBA - he's already a capable defender at the SF position and he shot 35% from deep after he became a permanent part of the rotation. The Hawks didn't play him much at the 4 last season but I'd like to see the Hawks explore some small-ball lineups with Prince at the 4 this season. He doesn't have the size to guard traditional 4s, but with the way the NBA is going, there are few of those left in the game. He also needs to speed up his 3 point release and increase his volume of 3 pointers.
Since he played all 4 years in college, he is old for a second-year player but given his improvements throughout last season, I think it's fair to hope for him to take another step forward this year. The Hawks have experimented with him as a P&R ball handler in both the 2016 and 2017 summer league but he didn't do well in that role since he doesn't have great vision. Still, there's a clear path for Prince to become a 37-39% 3 point shooter while also being a very good wing defender as early as this season and there's only 15 or so players like that in the NBA.
Ersan Ilyasova - PF
Ilyasova was acquired from the 76ers in the middle of last season and was re-signed to a 1y$6M contract. He'll likely begin the year as the team's starting PF. He's a career 36.6% 3-point shooter and his ability to space the floor will help Schroder penetrate defenses. Ilyasova is a good rebounder and also, undoubtedly the best charge-taker in the game. He will have the ability to veto trades but he's no stranger to trades (he's been traded 5 times in the last 2 years) and if he plays well, it's very likely he's traded to a contender at the trade deadline.
Dewayne Dedmon - C
The Hawks signed Dedmon to a 2y$12M contract (second year player option). The Hawks will look to Dedmon to fill the Dwight Howard's role on defense/rebounding while having a much smaller role on offense. Dedmon is also much better pick-and-roll defender than Howard at this stage in their careers. Dedmon was good in the regular season for the Spurs last year, but surprisingly couldn't get much playing time in the playoffs, even in the conference finals where the Warriors were exploiting Pau Gasol's immobility.
Bench Players
John "The Baptist" Collins - PF
Collins, taken 19th in the 2017 draft, already looks like a decent bet to outperform his draft position.
He's incredibly athletic and that helps him be a great finisher around the basket. He's a versatile dunker, can explode off either one foot and two feet which is not always the case with players coming out of college. He's not afraid to dunk over a contest, as evidenced by this dunk over two Pelicans players in summer league.
He's also a wonderful rebounder; he's very active on the glass and fights for rebounding position after every shot. He grabbed 14% of offensive rebounds and 27% of defensive rebounds in summer league, both of which are elite rates. While summer league stats don't mean a ton, research by Kevin Pelton has shown that rebounding is one of the few stats that translates well from summer league to the actual NBA regular season.
Outside of dunking and rebounding, the other areas of his game are pretty raw. He didn't show much of a post-up game in summer league, though pre-draft scouting reports indicate that he was good at posting up in transition, where he would establish deep post position and then turn around for a quick jump hook after catching a pass.
His jump shot also needs a lot of work; he attempted only one 3-pointer in his two years of college. He does have a decent mid-range shot though; he shot 44% on (mostly open) two-point jump shots in college and his shooting form also looks fine. Given the Hawks' past successes with turning players like Al Horford into solid 3-point shooters, I'm confident Collins will also develop a 3-point shot though we might not see it in his first season.
He's a bad defender right now although he has the physical tools to be a good defender at the 4. He doesn't have great instincts though and often finds himself in bad defensive positions although he's sometimes able to recover and use his bounce to block a shot. He has good lateral quickness and in theory, he should be able to develop into a good P&R defender.
All in all, he's a promising player who needs to improve his shooting and defense and he was drafted into an organization that's known for improving players' shooting and defense. In the past, first round draft picks on the Hawks have played around 10-12 MPG but I could see him playing 20+ MPG giving that the team is rebuilding and developing Collins will be one of the Hawks' primary focuses this season.
He'll start off as a bench player but I'd like to see him play a lot of his minutes alongside Schroder as I think he has the potential to be an elite roll-man. While Schroder isn't the greatest P&R player, he's sure as hell better than Malcolm Delaney in that regard. Coach Bud expects his players to execute on defense and I could see Collins getting benched for defensive lapses at times during the season. He'll back up Ersan Ilyasova to start the season but the hope is he plays well enough to earn the starting PF spot by the season's end.
Malcolm Delaney - PG
The Hawks signed Delaney to a 2-year contract last offseason after he'd been playing in Germany. He's a jump-shooting point guard who's bad at everything except shooting mid-rangers which puts him in the bottom tier of backup point guards. The Hawks had to bench him for Jose Calderon during the playoffs. He did shoot 40% from the shorter European line during his time there so even though he shot only 23% from deep last year, there's some hope that he becomes a capable 3-point shooter. If his 3-pointers don't go in this season, I'd be surprised if he makes an NBA roster next year.
Marco Belinelli - SG
Belinelli was acquired by the Hawks in the Dwight Howard trade. Throughout his career, he's been a very good 3-point shooter and a decent playmaker and the Hawks will need those skills to make up for Delaney's deficiencies in those areas.
DeAndre' Bembry - SF
Another 4-year college player that the Hawks took in last year's first round, Bembry is a non-shooter at this point in his career. He did show promise in other areas though, he seems like he could be a quality defender at the 1-3 positions. Unlike Prince, he actually showed some playmaking ability in summer league and during parts of the season. However, he shot 1/18 from deep last year. Yes it's a small sample size but the lack of attempts is more telling than the low percentage and he also shot 26% from 3 and 65% from the line in his final year of college so it's safe to say his shooting struggles are real. If he ever develops a 3-point shot, he'll be a quality player in the league. Until then, however, he's a fringe rotation player at best. The Hawks have had success in the past turning bad shooters into solid ones (DeMarre Carrol, for example), so I still have hope for him.
Mike Muscala - C
Muscala was re-signed to a 2y$10M contract (2nd year PO) this offseason which is a pretty reasonable contract when you compare it to the extension Cristiano Felicio got. He's a good 3-point shooter and decent rim protector (too slow to be a good P&R defender though). The spacing he provides will be important to the bench unit that includes Delaney, Bembry and Collins, all of whom are bad 3-point shooters right now. Along with Schroder, he's the longest tenured Hawk and last year, it seemed like Muscala and Paul Millsap were the only players who always executed Coach Bud's system. Unsurprisingly, some of the Hawks' best lineups were Millsap+bench units that included Muscala.
Luke Babbit - PF
Mike Budenholzer likes bigs who can shoot and Babbit is a career 40% 3-point shooter. At the start of the season, I expect him to split backup PF duties with John Collins, but if Collins impresses, I could see Babbit getting marginalized.
Tyler Dorsey - SG
Taken with the 41st pick in this year's draft. He's a knockdown shooter who shot 41% from 3 in his 2 years of college. He often took shots from well behind the college line so his shooting should translate to the NBA line fairly quickly. He has a quick release and is good at catching the ball on the move, setting his feet and getting of a shot quickly. I doubt he'll be used as much more than a spot-up shooter, at least early in his NBA career.
Nicholas Brussino - SG
The Hawks claimed Brussino off waivers from the Mavericks after summer league. He's a good shooter (40% from 3 in the D-League last season) and not much else. He started the Mavericks final game of the season vs the Grizzlies as the Mavericks fully embraced the tank towards the end of the year. Brussino led the team to victory with a career-high 15 points, costing the Mavericks in the lottery odds and reportedly making Mark Cuban mad.
Quinn Cook - PG
The Hawks signed Cook, former G-League rookie of the year and two time G-League All Star, to a two year partially guaranteed deal. He shot 42% from 3 in the G-League last year. He'll compete in training camp for a spot on the team.
Josh Magette - PG
Magette led the G-League in APG (9.3) last year before becoming the first player the Hawks signed to a 2-way contract.
Tyler Cavanaugh - PF
Yet another end of the roster player on this team who's a good shooter (41% from 3 in college), Cavanaugh went undrafted in the 2017 draft before signing a partially guaranteed deal with the Hawks. He seems to be the top candidate for the Hawks other 2-way contract.
Miles Plumlee - C
Plumlee will be 29 years old this season which means he's right in the middle of his prime. He signed for 3 more years at a very reasonable $12.5M/yr. The fact that he's such a skilled player on a value contract makes his one of the more desirable assets in the NBA, as evidenced by the fact that two teams have traded for him in the past year. Unfortunately, his skills are wasted on the rebuilding Hawks. He's currently on the trade market and teams around the league should be scrambling to put together a package to acquire him.
Misc
Team AMAs
Mike Muscala
Sir Foster (organist)
Bob Rathbun (play-by-play announcer)
Writers & Blogs Twitter Accounts
Writers
Blogs & Forums
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warriors vs raptors game 6 vegas odds video
On the updated odds to win the NBA title, the Raptors are -333 and Warriors +220.The favoured winning margin in Game 6 is Warriors by 3-6 points at +450. Toronto Raptors. The Raptors probably didn ... The Warriors are 3.5-point favorites in Game 6 at home Thursday night, according to OddsShark. Golden State is an underdog in the series with +215 betting odds. Toronto has -260 odds to win one of ... Betting Odds on Game 6 at Oracle Arena. Taking a quick look around our network of betting sites, the Golden State Warriors are firm – if not prohibitive – favorites to win the next battle on Thursday night in Oakland. Stephen Curry and the Warriors are (-150) moneyline favorites and (-3) favorites against the point spread at BetOnline. NBA Finals 2019: Odds and predictions for Game 6 between the Toronto Raptors and Golden State Warriors. The Warriors are favoured to win Game 6 but most of our staff believe the Raptors will win once again at Oracle Arena, this time to secure their first title. Warriors are 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games overall; Warriors are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 NBA Championship Games; Raptors vs Warriors NBA Finals Game 6 Betting Analysis. The Golden State Warriors showed a lot of grit to get the victory in Game 5. The Warriors now have a chance to even the series in the final NBA game at Oracle Arena. The Golden State Warriors will look to keep their championship hopes alive with a victory Thursday as they return home for Game 6 of the NBA Finals as 2.5-point favorites on the NBA odds at ... NBA Finals Game 6 Odds: Raptors vs. Warriors. Spread: Warriors -2.5 Over/Under: 212 Time: 9 p.m. ET TV: ABC Series Score: Raptors Lead 3-2 The Golden State Warriors were able to stave off elimination in a down-to-the-wire thriller in Toronto on Monday. Odds Fantasy Basketball ... What is your best bet for Warriors vs. Raptors on 6/13/19 in game 6? This poll is closed. 42% Warriors -3 (473 votes) 33% Raptors +3 Raptors vs. Warriors odds, line: 2019 NBA Finals Game 6 picks, predictions from expert on 30-16 run Zack Cimini enters Game 6 of Raptors vs. Warriors red hot on NBA picks Warriors vs. Raptors Schedule. Game 1 in Toronto: Raptors won 118-109; Game 2 in Toronto: Warriors won 109-104; Game 3 in Golden State: Raptors won 123-109; Game 4 in Golden State: Raptors won 105-92; Game 5 in Toronto: Warriors won 106-105; Game 6 in Golden State: Thursday, June 13 at 9 p.m. ET; Game 7 in Toronto: Sunday, June 16 at 8 p.m. ET ...
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warriors vs raptors game 6 vegas odds
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